Global investment bank JPMorgan said that if management at Samsung Electronics accepts the union's demands as it faces the largest strike threat since its founding, this year's expected operating profit could fall by up to 12%.
Researcher Jay Kwon said in a report on the 6th, "We judge that the risk of a prolonged labor strike is materializing," and noted, "The actual business impact will depend on the duration of the strike and, above all, the outcome of the negotiations." Kwon added, "Assuming the company accepts the union's demands, the expected operating profit for 2026 would face a 7–12% downside risk due to increased labor-related expense," and expected, "About 1–2% of semiconductor institutional sector sales will be affected due to production disruptions."
Kwon projected that if Samsung Electronics pays 10–15% of operating profit as bonuses and raises base salary by 5%, additional personnel costs of 2.1–3.9 trillion won would occur versus the previous estimate.
Kwon also estimated that if the 18-day strike released by the union runs from May 21 to June 7, the lost sales opportunities due to production disruptions would exceed 4 trillion won. Kwon warned, "If the decline in wafer throughput worsens further or if a production line shutdown occurs, the production impact could be greater than in the base scenario."
Still, Kwon viewed the impact on Samsung Electronics' share price as limited. "Looking at Hyundai Motor's past case, the correlation between labor strikes and share price movements was limited," Kwon said, adding, "We expect both Samsung Electronics management and the union to reach an agreement in the midterm."
Kwon maintained an "overweight" investment view on Samsung Electronics and set a target price of 350,000 won, explaining, "This is because the upcycle in memory market conditions could last longer than expected." Kwon added, "We have consistently argued that every time the share price corrects on union strike issues, it is a buying opportunity," and said, "There is no change in this view."