With global smartphone makers setting this year's production conservatively amid rising prices for components including memory chips, there is an outlook that Samsung Display and LG Display, which supply mobile organic light-emitting diodes (OLED), will take a hit. Some warn the smartphone market this year could shrink by more than 10%.
According to a synthesis of the latest reports from market research firms including TechInsights and major investment banks on the 20th, the dominant view is that the smartphone market will contract this year. TechInsights, in a report released on the 16th, projected smartphone sales this year would fall 6% from a year earlier, while IDC forecast a decline of about 12%. Another market research firm, Omdia, presented a baseline assumption of a 7% contraction this year and warned it could reach as much as 15% depending on geopolitical variables.
Among domestic display companies, Samsung Display, which has the highest share of revenue from mobile OLEDs, is most exposed. According to Samsung Electronics' 2025 business report, Samsung Display's global market share for smartphone panels (by revenue) last year was tallied at 41.0%. When smartphone sales drop, utilization rates, shipments, and customer orders are the first to be affected.
Meanwhile, Chinese panel makers including BOE are accelerating their entry into the premium OLED market, intensifying competition. Overall demand is stagnant, but on the supply side competition is expanding, a structure that could add to the burden on Korea's display industry.
Because Samsung Display has a high share of premium panel sales, including foldable displays, it plans to broaden its portfolio to foldables, wearables, and IT to defend prices as much as possible. The company is also said to be putting emphasis on a product mix strategy that strengthens profitability as its management strategy for this year.
In the case of LG Display, the impact from the smartphone market's contraction is expected to be less severe than for Samsung Display. Looking at LG Display's revenue breakdown last year: IT 37%, mobile and others 36%, TV 19%, and automotive 8%. While slowing smartphone demand will affect shipments of mobile OLEDs, analysts say a diversified revenue structure across IT, automotive, and TV can absorb the shock.
A display industry official said, "This year, display corporations pinned hopes on growth in IT OLEDs but have hit the shoals of declining smartphone demand due to a surge in memory chip prices," and added, "The key variable that will determine the two companies' results is how well they can defend against falling OLED panel prices."