As global smartphone manufacturers set this year's output conservatively due to rising prices of components including memory semiconductors, there is an outlook that Samsung Display and LG Display, which supply mobile organic light-emitting diode (OLED) panels, will take a hit. Some even warn that the smartphone market size could fall by more than 10% this year.
Based on the latest reports from market research firms including TechInsights and major investment banks on the 20th, the dominant outlook is that the smartphone market will contract this year. In a report released on the 16th, TechInsights expected this year's smartphone sales to fall 6% from a year earlier, while IDC projected a decline of around 12% year over year. Another market research firm, Omdia, presented baseline expectations for a roughly 7% contraction this year and warned that, depending on geopolitical variables, it could contract as much as 15%.
Among domestic display companies, Samsung Display, which has the highest share of revenue from mobile OLEDs, is most exposed. According to Samsung Electronics' 2025 business report, Samsung Display's global market share in smartphone panels (by revenue) last year was tallied at 41.0%. When smartphone sales decline, utilization rates, shipments, and customer orders are the first to be affected.
On top of that, Chinese panel makers including BOE are accelerating their entry into the premium OLED market, intensifying competition. While overall demand is showing a flat trend, competition is expanding on the supply side, which could add to the burden on the domestic display industry.
Because Samsung Display has a high share of premium panel sales, including foldable displays, it plans to widen its portfolio to foldables, wearables, and IT uses to defend prices as much as possible. The company is also said to be putting the emphasis on a product mix strategy that strengthens profitability as this year's management plan.
In the case of LG Display, the shock from the smartphone market's contraction is expected to be less than for Samsung Display. Looking at LG Display's revenue mix last year: IT 37%, mobile and others 36%, TV 19%, and automotive 8%. While a slowdown in smartphone demand will affect shipments of mobile OLEDs, analysts say its diversified revenue base across IT, automotive, and TV can absorb the shock.
A display industry official said, "This year display corporations pinned hopes on growth in IT OLEDs, but they hit the reef of weakening smartphone demand due to a surge in memory semiconductor prices," and added, "The key variable that will determine the two companies' results is how well they can defend against the decline in OLED panel prices."