As generative artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes the structure of the design industry itself, Adobe and Figma, once rivals, are now wobbling in tandem in a shared predicament. The two corporations that split the market across different segments are seeing their stock prices plunge for the same reason. Analysts say the fear that AI could replace the entire design workflow, not just bring a simple technological shift, is weighing on investor sentiment.
Adobe and Figma have long competed head-to-head in the design software market. Adobe has been the dominant force in traditional creative tools centered on Photoshop and Illustrator, while Figma rapidly expanded its share in collaboration-based user interface (UI) and user experience (UX) design to emerge as a challenger. In fact, Adobe sought to acquire Figma for about $20 billion in 2022, but the deal ultimately collapsed in 2023 after being blocked by antitrust regulators in the United States and Europe.
According to the industry on the 17th, on the 14th (local time), Mike Krieger, chief product officer (CPO) at Anthropic, abruptly resigned from Figma's board. The same day, Anthropic released its next-generation model, "Claude Opus 4.7." The model is said to be capable of generating a variety of outputs—such as websites, UIs, and presentations—based on natural language, and is characterized by improved performance in professional domains including software engineering capabilities, vision features, and interface and document generation.
Immediately after the news broke, Adobe and Figma shares fell together. It was taken as a signal that an AI corporation could directly enter and replace the existing design software space. The market is even invoking the so-called "SaaSpocalypse" scenario, saying "AI could encroach on the SaaS market." As a result, analysts say the competitive dynamic between Adobe and Figma is collapsing, shifting to a structure in which the two corporations face the same risk at the same time.
Stock prices have already priced in these jitters. Adobe shares have fallen about 25%–30% this year, dropping to near their year-to-date low, while Figma has plunged more than 80% from its peak at its 2025 initial public offering (IPO). Figma's corporate value, which once topped $60 billion, has now shrunk to around $10 billion. Although both corporations are still maintaining revenue growth, the market is asking a fundamental question rather than focusing on earnings: "Can this business be sustained going forward?"
This concern is growing because generative AI is not just replacing design "tools" but changing the entire design "process." In the past, designers had to directly compose screens and go through iterative revisions, but now, by entering requirements in natural language, UI design, user flows, interactions, and even front-end code can be generated at once. In other words, as the stages of idea → design → prototype → development are integrated into a single flow, the existing industry structure—built on skilled labor and specialized software—is being shaken on both fronts.
Google also recently made a major update to its AI design tool "Stitch" and pushed "vibe design" to the forefront, sending Figma's stock down about 12% in a single day. With a method revealed that does not require humans to directly carry out the design process, investor sentiment quickly soured.
Adobe's high-margin stock image institutional sector is shrinking quickly amid the spread of AI image generation, and while it is responding with its own generative AI, "Firefly," analysts say it has not fully offset the hit to its existing business. On top of that, with the retirement of Shantanu Narayen, the chief executive officer (CEO) who led the company for 18 years, strategic uncertainty has grown.
Figma also had strength as a collaboration-based UI and UX design tool, but in an environment where AI performs design and implementation simultaneously, the need for collaboration itself could diminish, which is becoming a burden. In fact, some startups and small teams are increasingly handling the early stages of design and development at the same time by using AI.
In the end, this marks not a competition between Adobe and Figma, but the beginning of a structural clash between generative AI and existing software. Because two former rivals are shaking at the same time, analysts say this shift is likely a sign of an industry-wide reshuffle rather than an issue for individual corporations.