A forecast said the global robotaxi (robotaxi, Autonomous Driving taxi) market will grow to about $168 billion (about 248 trillion won) by 2035.
Counterpoint Research said in its report, Global robotaxi vehicle sales and service market outlook, published on the 16th, "As the robotaxi market enters a phase of structural growth through 2035, the related market size is expected to reach about $168 billion," adding, "The number of robotaxis operating worldwide will increase to 3.6 million."
In particular, Counterpoint predicted this year will be a key inflection point as the robotaxi industry enters a full-fledged expansion phase, as robotaxi operators move beyond pilot programs in select cities to pursue large-scale commercialization. The report said, "Google Waymo, Tesla, Baidu, WeRide, Pony.ai and other major corporations are expanding in major cities around the world," adding, "The decade-long preparation period has entered its final stage."
It also said the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) models needed for Autonomous Driving, large-scale investment, and growing fleet sizes are underpinning this growth. Murtaza Ali, a research director at Counterpoint, said, "The robotaxi industry is rapidly shifting into a high-margin, massively scalable service market," adding, "By 2035, China and the United States will account for most of the global robotaxi operations."
Counterpoint projected the United States will continue to serve as the hub of technological innovation, building on early commercialization experience. Waymo, the Autonomous Driving corporation under Alphabet, Google's parent company, opened the door to market expansion through commercialization in major U.S. cities, and Tesla also began a robotaxi pilot service last year as it prepared for a large-scale launch. In addition, in the United States, a range of corporations including Zoox, Uber, Lyft, Motional, May Mobility, and EVE RIDE have entered the related market.
China is also expected to lead the rollout of robotaxis by leveraging government support, rapid commercialization, and expense competitiveness. Kevin Lee, a research associate at Counterpoint, said, "In China, Baidu is leading through its 'Apollo Go' service in major cities such as Wuhan, Beijing and Shenzhen, and WeRide and Pony.ai have been rapidly expanding their businesses since their 2024 initial public offerings (IPO)," adding, "The three corporations are likely to account for most of China's robotaxi market."
Didi, backed by Alibaba, is also piloting Level 4 (high automation) Autonomous Driving vehicles in Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing.
In key regions such as Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Japan, Korea and Australia, competition is expected to be a mix of local corporations such as Waymo, MOIA, Grab, Bolt and Kakao Mobility, alongside leading players from the United States and China.