A forecast says physical artificial intelligence (AI) devices, including robots, Autonomous Driving cars, and drones, will grow to about 145 million units in nine years.
According to the Global Physical AI Tracker published by market research firm Counterpoint Research on the 12th, cumulative shipments of physical AI devices such as vehicles, robots, and drones from 2025 to 2035 are expected to reach 145 million units. By device, shipments are projected at 59 million drones, 48 million robots, and 38 million Autonomous Driving cars.
Counterpoint stated accordingly that the global physical AI market is entering a phase of rapid growth as advances in Robotics, Edge Computing, Generative AI, and vision and sensor technologies move machines into a stage where they perceive the real world and interact autonomously.
In the robot sector, service-type and humanoid (human-like) robots are expected to lead the physical AI market. In particular, service robots are projected to have the highest shipments as their use expands across logistics, warehousing, hotels and retail, healthcare, cleaning, security, and agriculture.
Humanoid Robot is still in the early development stage, but it is expected to grow the fastest and push cumulative installations past 100,000 units by 2028. That is about seven times last year's level.
Neil Shah, vice president at Counterpoint Research, said, "Humanoid Robot is one of the most noteworthy long-term growth opportunities in physical AI," adding, "Advances in Generative AI, Computer Vision, and motion control technology are bringing us closer to general-purpose robots that can be practically used in human environments."
According to Counterpoint, AgiBot ranked first in the global market for annual Humanoid Robot installations. It was followed by Unitree, Ubtech, Leju, and Tesla.
However, Shah assessed that while Humanoid Robot has made considerable progress in the "form" aspect such as hardware, there is still much room for improvement in the "intelligence" domain. He said, "The industry faces the challenge of moving beyond autonomous machine intelligence (AMI) to artificial general intelligence (AGI) implemented in physical environments."
Autonomous Driving cars (L4 and above) are also expected to see their market grow rapidly over the medium to long term as robotaxis and Autonomous Driving personal vehicles begin to spread in earnest. In particular, Counterpoint analyzed that, from the perspective of automakers (OEMs), they are highly likely to become the largest sources of revenue.
Peter Richardson, vice president at Counterpoint Research, said, "Autonomous Driving cars are the core foundational area currently leading the transition to physical AI," adding, "Autonomous Driving cars, underpinned by advanced Autonomous Driving technology, computing, AI capabilities, and real-time connectivity, will remain the field that creates the highest value."
In the case of commercial drones, they are spreading rapidly across logistics, surveillance, and the enterprise market overall, becoming the first large-scale commercialization case of physical AI. Excluding consumer and defense drones, commercial drones are expected to see cumulative shipments rise quickly due to relatively low average selling prices (ASP) and more concrete regulatory environments in key markets.
As physical AI systems advance and shipments of related devices rise, demand for high-performance computing is also expected to increase. Counterpoint said demand for the semiconductors needed for this will grow in tandem, increasing their share within the overall system.
To meet this demand, Nvidia is moving to tap the physical AI market with a strategy spanning from data centers to the edge, leveraging competitiveness in AI training and simulation and high-performance computing platforms. Qualcomm is focusing on integrated AI computing and connectivity platforms for autonomous systems in edge environments such as robots and drones, based on an ecosystem-centric, power-efficient Edge AI strategy.
Mark Einstein, director at Counterpoint Research, said, "Physical AI will create new opportunities across the entire ecosystem, beyond device manufacturers," adding, "Computing corporations will benefit as they provide the 'brains' of these systems, and telecom operators will gain new growth opportunities through increased data traffic, connectivity, and the expansion of edge services."
He added, "Software and service corporations will secure recurring revenue models based on data analytics, lifecycle management, fleet services, and cloud infrastructure."