There is an outlook that NCSOFT will enter a rebound phase in earnings starting this year. As the combined hit effect of "AION2" and "Lineage Classic" is fully reflected, both revenue and operating profit are expected to grow year over year. Analysts say that after bottoming out last year, the earnings structure is shifting into a stable growth phase.
According to FnGuide on the 24th, NCSOFT's first-quarter revenue is expected to be 506.4 billion won, with operating profit of 89.6 billion won. Operating profit would rise about 17 times from the same period a year earlier (5.2 billion won), while revenue would also increase more than 40%.
Second-quarter revenue of 518.4 billion won and operating profit of 87.1 billion won are also projected, suggesting the 500 billion-won revenue run rate will be maintained. On an annual basis, revenue is expected to exceed 2 trillion won, with operating profit in the 300 billion–380 billion won range. Compared with last year's 16.1 billion won in operating profit, that is an increase of nearly 20 times—a scale of growth that effectively changes the earnings structure itself.
The core driver of this earnings improvement is "AION2." Since launch, the game has maintained about 1.5 million daily active users (DAU), securing stable traffic. First-quarter revenue alone is expected to be around 135 billion won, with membership-based revenue estimated at 30%–40%. Notably, with a global launch slated for the third quarter, additional growth potential in the second half is secured.
Recent updates are also helping retain users. As patches reflecting user feedback continue—such as the introduction of a combat power system, UI (user interface) convenience improvements, and an overhaul of dungeon queueing—the service's completeness is gradually improving. The assessment is that it has moved beyond an initial hit to enter a phase of securing a long-term revenue base.
A rebound in the legacy IP "Lineage Classic" is also supporting the earnings recovery. According to Gametrics, as of the third week of March, its PC café share rose to 16.2%, firmly holding second place after League of Legends (LOL).
Profitability indicators are improving quickly. "Lineage Classic" recorded 320,000 concurrent users, and cumulative payments over about 20 days are estimated to have reached 40 billion won. Daily payments are still analyzed to be over 2 billion won, and the title is serving as a stable cash cow.
With "AION2" and "Lineage Classic" delivering results at the same time, NCSOFT is breaking away from its reliance on a single IP. A portfolio structure in which both new and legacy IPs operate together is taking shape, reducing earnings volatility.
On top of that, NCSOFT's mergers and acquisitions (M&A) strategy is also bearing fruit. The planned acquisition of "JustPlay" to expand in the mobile casual market is scheduled to be reflected in earnings from the second quarter, with an expected contribution of about 15 billion won in operating profit per quarter. The company is moving away from an MMORPG-centered structure and diversifying its revenue sources.
Brokerages are also positive. Yuanta Securities Korea raised its target price to 360,000 won, while BNK Investment & Securities and Meritz Securities are maintaining "buy" ratings, reflecting structural improvements and earnings momentum. Kiwoom Securities set a target price of 430,000 won and rated it the top pick in the sector.
Lee Chang-young, an analyst at Yuanta Securities Korea, said, "Despite the success of AION2, negative investor sentiment toward NCSOFT was dominant," and added, "However, better-than-expected Lineage Classic, along with additional growth from M&A, will deliver short- and long-term results that exceed market expectations and overcome the negativity."