As Micron of the United States, seen as a barometer for the performance of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, posted an earnings surprise for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 (Dec. last year–Feb. this year), some expect that not only memory but also the resurgent foundry division of Samsung Electronics will deliver results above expectations. As a result, forecasts for Samsung Electronics' first-quarter results this year are being raised at home and abroad.
A compilation of first-quarter earnings outlook reports for Samsung Electronics by major securities firms on the 23rd shows that the previous projection that memory semiconductors alone would generate around 160 trillion won in operating profit this year is being steadily revised upward. Analysts say that, in addition to memory, large contracts won in the foundry (contract chip manufacturing) sector since last year will start to be fully reflected in revenue and operating profit this year, creating synergy between memory and foundry.
Mirae Asset Securities cut its forecast for the operating loss of Samsung Electronics' Foundry and System LSI division this year to 1.9 trillion won from the previous 2.8 trillion won. Daishin Securities also lowered last month's non-memory business scorecard from a 3.294 trillion won operating loss to a 2.978 trillion won operating loss this month, and DS Securities reduced its estimate from a 3.644 trillion won operating loss to a 2.708 trillion won operating loss. While domestic and overseas investment banks and securities firms differ on the timing of a return to profit, there is no dispute that results are improving.
The securities community estimates Samsung Electronics' first-quarter operating profit at 35 trillion–40 trillion won and expects it to take the top spot ahead of SK hynix. Second-quarter operating profit is expected to top 50 trillion won, and full-year operating profit is projected at 220 trillion–250 trillion won. The consensus is that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) sales will more than triple from a year earlier, wiping out past sluggishness. Earlier, Samsung Electronics formalized supplies of sixth-generation HBM (HBM4) to Nvidia and AMD. In particular, Samsung Electronics is strongly favored to monopolize HBM for high-performance products among Nvidia's next-generation graphics processing units (GPUs).
On top of this, expectations are being priced in for foundry market improvement and expanding orders. With a prolonged memory supply shortage expected, foundry profitability is also projected to improve thanks to price hikes and other effects. As with TSMC, the world's largest foundry company, Samsung Electronics is strengthening profitability alongside its order base in line with market trends.
TSMC and Samsung Electronics are said to be raising contract manufacturing prices across all nodes. Market research firm TrendForce said, "TSMC is raising foundry prices this year for all nodes at 5-nanometer and below. With orders expected through 2027, additional price hikes cannot be ruled out," adding, "Samsung also signaled price increases last year for advanced-process foundry services." TSMC is reportedly pursuing price hikes of around 10%.
Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics has continued to announce major order wins, most recently formalizing a foundry order from Nvidia after Tesla and Qualcomm last year. In addition, AMD CEO Lisa Su recently visited Korea to discuss cooperation not only on HBM but also on foundry, further boosting earnings expectations.
Market research firm Counterpoint Research said, "Expanded cooperation with Nvidia is an opportunity to reaffirm Samsung Foundry's AI chip production capabilities, and order volume is expected to grow as it secures key AI customers," adding, "It is expected to serve as an important foundation for a rebound in market share." It went on, "In the coming years, utilization of Samsung Foundry's advanced processes will remain high," adding, "It is expected to act as a new growth engine driving an expanded presence in the AI semiconductor market."