There is an outlook that China's organic light-emitting diode (OLED) panel production capacity could overtake Korea's by 2029.
Market research firm Counterpoint Research analyzed this in its report on Apr. 12 on "display equipment investment and equipment market share" for the first quarter of this year. It said that because China is aggressively expanding OLED production facilities following liquid crystal display (LCD), it could surpass Korea's market share in three years. As recently as 2023, Korea's OLED share was 13% higher than China's.
Lee Jae-ho, a research fellow at Counterpoint Research, said, "Korea has production capacity for mobile, IT, and TV OLEDs, but new expansion investments are more cautious than China," and added, "While Chinese panel makers, backed by government support, are continuing new 8.7-generation (G) OLED investments applying new deposition technologies, Korea is focusing on maintaining capacity through investments to respond to new technologies."
According to the report, global display total production capacity is forecast to increase 2% from a year earlier this year. OLED production capacity is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5% from last year through 2030. During this period, LCD is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2%.
Counterpoint Research projected that the penetration of OLED panels in mobile and IT devices will expand. However, in large displays including TVs, the shift from LCD to OLED is expected to be slower than that. Accordingly, it forecast that LCD will maintain about 90% of total production capacity through 2030. Counterpoint Research said, "Even if the OLED share gradually increases in the medium to long term, in the overall production capacity structure, the LCD-centered trend is highly likely to continue."
Lee said, "Korea leads in OLED technology, but as learned from LCD, if China surges ahead in quantity, there will be limits to maintaining an advantage solely with technological competitiveness," and added, "As market leaders, I hope Korean display makers will not fall behind in the OLED hegemony through continuous development and timely investment."