A forecast said global smartphone shipments will plunge this year due to a surge in memory prices.
According to market research firm TrendForce on the 11th, global smartphone production this year is projected to be 1.135 billion units, down 10% from 2025.
TrendForce said, "The impact will differ by brand depending on product mix and regional market exposure," adding, "In a pessimistic scenario, the decline in annual global smartphone production could widen to more than 15%."
Contract prices in the first quarter for memory based on the mainstream spec of 8GB RAM and 256GB storage jumped about 200% from the same period in 2025, effectively tripling. In the past, memory accounted for about 10%–15% of the smartphone bill of materials (BOM), but it has now grown to 30%–40%.
TrendForce said, "As memory prices, a key component in smartphones, rise, many brands will be unable to avoid raising product prices to defend margins," adding, "At the same time, adjustments to product portfolios and specifications are inevitable."
The capacity to respond will likely vary by company.
Samsung Electronics, the global No. 1 and a major memory supplier, is expected to see slower production amid overall market contraction, but the decline will likely be smaller than that of Chinese brands thanks to its vertical integration structure. Apple also has a relatively greater ability to absorb the rise in memory expense because of its high share of premium models. Its customer base is also relatively more tolerant of higher prices.
In contrast, Chinese brands such as Xiaomi, which rely heavily on budget models, are expected to be hit directly by rising memory prices. That is because the markets they focus on are relatively more price-sensitive, making it hard to pass the memory-related expense on to consumers. In particular, TrendForce assessed that Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi and Honor, which are highly dependent on the Chinese market, are facing dual pressure from rising memory prices and intensifying competition with Huawei.
TrendForce said, "Beyond rising memory prices, structural changes are emerging as smartphone replacement cycles lengthen and upgrade incentives weaken," adding, "It will not be easy for these structural shifts to change in the short term."