In 2025, Korea's industrial sectors saw mixed fortunes. Automobiles and petrochemicals struggled under the impact of U.S. tariff imposition and the Russia-Ukraine war, while sectors such as semiconductors, shipbuilding, and defense enjoyed a boom as global demand increased. We examine the key issues that will move the global economy in 2026 and forecast the sector-by-sector impact. [Editor's note]
What propped up Korea's exports last year was "semiconductors." With the global spread of artificial intelligence (AI), demand for memory chips surged and entered a boom phase, led by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Semiconductor exports rose more than 30%, offsetting the slump in traditional manufacturing such as petrochemicals and steel.
The outlook is brighter this year. According to The Export-Import Bank of Korea's Overseas Economic Research Institute, Korea's semiconductor exports this year are expected to rise 11% on-year to $188 billion (about 254 trillion won), marking a record high for the second consecutive year.
The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) projected that the global semiconductor market in 2026 will grow more than 25% from the previous year to about $975 billion. Memory, in particular, was expected to post growth in the 30% range, outpacing the overall rate. In the DRAM market, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix hold a combined global share of about 70%, and in NAND flash, in the 50% range.
◇ Samsung Electronics and SK hynix combined operating profit seen topping 200 trillion won
The market is calling the strength in the memory institutional sector a "supercycle." BofA (Bank of America) defined 2026 as a "supercycle similar to the boom of the 1990s," forecasting that global DRAM revenue will jump 51% on-year and NAND 45%, while the ASP (average selling price) will rise 33% for DRAM and 26% for NAND.
Reflecting entry into a full-fledged semiconductor supercycle, brokerages are steadily raising their earnings forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Kiwoom Securities put Samsung Electronics' operating profit on a consolidation basis this year at 107.612 trillion won. That is more than 29% above the three-month brokerage consensus of 83.242 trillion won. iM Securities raised SK hynix's operating profit forecast for this year to 93.843 trillion won. Under the most optimistic scenario, the two companies' combined operating profit will exceed 200 trillion won.
In the memory chip market, a structural supply shortage, in which supply cannot keep up with demand, is deepening, pushing prices up sharply. As demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM), essential for AI training and inference, explodes, supply constraints across memory have intensified, lifting prices even for commodity products.
Market research firm TrendForce projected that contract prices for commodity DRAM in the first quarter will rise more than 50% from the previous quarter, and that NAND flash prices will also continue to see steep gains, centered on server DRAM and enterprise solid-state drives (SSD). With AI server investment expanding and inventories being depleted at the same time, the memory market has entered a typical "seller's market," analysts said.
Moreover, after suffering the aftermath of overexpansion in 2018, domestic memory corporations have maintained a profitability-focused stance of "orderly expansion." Lee Mihye, senior researcher at The Export-Import Bank of Korea, said, "Semiconductor corporations are maintaining a conservative investment stance, making it difficult to expand capacity in the short term, and as production capacity is prioritized for HBM and high-capacity DDR5, the ability to supply commodity memory for PCs and mobile is limited," adding, "Most DRAM makers, except Samsung Electronics, are constrained in expansion due to a lack of equipment installation space, so it will not be easy for the shortage to be resolved even by the end of this year."
◇ HBM competition heats up in earnest… market size is expanding rapidly
In the HBM market, competition between SK hynix and Samsung Electronics is expected to intensify further. Holding the lead, SK hynix is preemptively building out its roadmap from HBM3E (5th-generation HBM) to next-generation HBM4 (6th-generation HBM), quickly raising the proportion of high value-added products. Hyundai Motor Securities said, "With the surge in commodity DRAM prices adding support, SK hynix is likely to record the highest profitability among global DRAM makers."
Samsung Electronics has entered a full-fledged catch-up phase. It expanded HBM3E supply from the second half of last year, and this year is focusing its capabilities on developing HBM4 and HBM4E (7th-generation HBM), aiming for a turnaround with next-generation products. Among the three global memory makers including SK hynix and U.S.-based Micron, Samsung has the largest output, which is also seen as a strength because it offers greater operating leverage in an upcycle for memory prices ahead.
Market research firm Omdia predicted that, alongside the spread of AI accelerators, the HBM market will continue its high-growth phase and that the share of next-generation HBM4 will begin to expand in earnest starting this year. It also cited the increasing diversification of HBM demand sources as a key driver of market expansion. As big tech companies push ahead with application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) strategies to reduce reliance on Nvidia graphics processing units (GPU), Google's tensor processing unit (TPU), OpenAI's in-house AI chip, Amazon's Trainium 3, and Microsoft's Maia 200 are appearing one after another.
Park Yuak, senior research fellow at Kiwoom Securities, said, "Samsung Electronics, which has secured ASICs as key customers, will see its HBM shipments in 2026 more than triple from the previous year," adding, "In the first quarter, HBM sales applied to major ASIC chips will increase, and in the second quarter, shipments of HBM4 to be mounted on Nvidia's 'Rubin' will begin in earnest."
◇ System semiconductors and foundries enter a recovery phase… U.S. tariff is the biggest variable
There is a view that system semiconductors and the foundry institutional sector have passed their bottom. According to market research firm Gartner, the global system semiconductor market is expected to grow about 10% this year from a year earlier, supported by AI Semiconductor growth. Korea's market share in system semiconductors remains at about 2%, but Samsung Electronics' application processor (AP) Exynos will be installed in the Galaxy S26, slated for release in the first half of this year, in a bid to regain competitiveness.
In the foundry (contract semiconductor manufacturing) institutional sector, the company is also seeking a rebound by securing volumes from key clients. Samsung Foundry's global market share stood at 7.3% as of the second quarter of last year, far behind TSMC, but the industry says that as yields on the 3-nanometer process stabilize, new orders centered on AI accelerators and network chips are gradually increasing. In particular, Samsung Electronics' Taylor foundry fab, scheduled to start operations this year, is emerging as an alternative option to TSMC.
Investment bank Deutsche Bank said in a recent report, "As TSMC's advanced process capacity approaches saturation, major fabless (chip design specialist) corporations are seeking alternative production options to diversify supply chain risks," adding, "Among foundries with a production base in the United States, Samsung Electronics is being viewed as a practical alternative."
The biggest external variable for the semiconductor industry this year is considered to be U.S. tariff policy. The United States is reclassifying semiconductors as a strategic industry and has hinted at the possibility of imposing high-rate tariffs to expand domestic production capacity.
In the industry, the prevailing view is that the relative impact may be limited for domestic corporations that have pledged to invest in the United States. Because substitutes are limited for AI Server Memory, there is also analysis that the expense burden is likely to be passed on to clients. The tariff variable is expected to have a greater impact on mid- to long-term investment strategy and the reshaping of production bases than on short-term earnings.