In 2025, Korea's industrial sectors saw mixed fortunes. Automobiles and petrochemicals struggled under the impact of U.S. tariff impositions and the Russia-Ukraine war, while shipbuilding and defense industries enjoyed a boom on rising global demand. We examine key issues that will shape the global economy in 2026 and forecast their sector-by-sector impact. [Editor's note]
Korea's display industry is expected to post modest growth of around 5% from a year earlier this year. With major sports events set to be held, a rebound in the recently sluggish TV market is anticipated, and analysts say areas such as in-vehicle displays, which can serve as new revenue sources, could enter a growth phase.
However, the fact that IT device segments such as smartphones, laptops, and tablets—the main outlets for panels—are currently experiencing a "memory crunch" is seen as a variable. It stems from major memory semiconductor corporations focusing on high bandwidth memory (HBM) production as artificial intelligence (AI) services expand. With DRAM and NAND flash prices for IT devices surging, overall output could fall, a factor cited as likely to temper growth in the display market. While Korean corporations have maintained a technology gap over Chinese companies in organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technology, concern is mounting as that gap continues to narrow.
According to the industry on the 22nd, liquid crystal display (LCD) production in Korea is now largely limited to LG Display's IT panels. Under price undercutting by Chinese corporations, Samsung Display fully exited the LCD business in the first half of 2022. LG Display also halted large-size LCD panel production in Apr. last year. Samsung Display is effectively generating all of its revenue from OLED panels, and as of the third quarter last year, OLED accounted for a record-high 65% of LG Display's sales. The performance of Korea's display industry tracks the boom-and-bust cycles of the OLED market. Market research firm Omdia said Korea's share of the global OLED market by revenue stood at 68.3% last year, up 1.9 percentage points (P) from a year earlier.
◇ Even if the display market shrinks, OLED grows 6%
Omdia forecasts that the overall display market by shipments will fall 2% this year from a year earlier. In contrast, the OLED market is expected to grow 6.1%. Last year, OLED panel shipments rose 5.0% year over year to about 1,043.07 million units, and this year could expand to 1,106.26 million. By area, OLED is projected to grow 10.6% this year from a year earlier, outpacing the overall display growth rate (6%).
Displays are a business-to-business (B2B) industry, meaning revenue can only be generated if there are client companies to buy the product. In other words, results depend on market conditions at key outlets. One driver of expected OLED growth is that major sports events could lift TV demand from its prolonged slump. Starting with the Milan-Cortina d'Ampezzo Winter Olympics in Feb., all "four major international sports events" will take place this year: the World Baseball Classic (Mar.), the North and Central America World Cup (Jun.), and the Aichi-Nagoya Asian Games (Sep.).
The resulting demand increase is expected to concentrate on OLED, a premium TV, rather than LCD. Korea was estimated to have captured 92.4% of the market for large OLEDs of 9 inches or larger last year. In particular, TV OLED panels are produced entirely in Korea. By revenue last year, LG Display produced 81% and Samsung Display accounted for 19%.
Deborah Yang, senior analyst for displays at Omdia, said, "Chinese companies that have expanded LCD TV sales with Chinese government subsidies are unlikely to survive unless they shift to a profitability-focused strategy," adding, "As subsidies are being reduced and competition is intensifying in the U.S. market, OLED TVs, which have a clear edge in premium competition, will grow as a result."
It is also positive that OLED panels are being adopted in automotive semiconductors. Shipments in this segment were estimated at 3.196 million units last year, and are forecast to rise 63% to 5.208 million units this year.
Omdia expects total OLED market revenue to grow from $50,189.16 million (about 73.763 trillion won) this year to $63,060.98 million (about 92.6807 trillion won) in 2030. By contrast, the LCD market is projected to shrink from $77,810.02 million (about 114.3807 trillion won) to $73,323.38 million (about 107.7854 trillion won) over the same period.
◇ Displays under price-cut pressure amid the "memory crunch"
Concerns about declining IT device demand due to the "memory crunch" are cited as a factor that could hinder OLED market growth. Analysts say sluggish smartphone demand could weigh on Korea's display industry. According to the industry, the smartphone market has already transitioned from LCD to OLED, with a current split of 6 (OLED) to 4 (LCD).
Memory semiconductors account for about 18% of smartphone manufacturing costs. TrendForce projected that generic DRAM prices, which jumped an average 45% to 50% in the fourth quarter last year from the previous quarter, could climb an additional 55% to 60% in the first quarter this year. Counterpoint Research also said smartphone memory prices will rise 40% through the second quarter this year, pushing up finished goods manufacturing costs by about 8% to 10%. As a result, smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 2.1% from a year earlier this year.
Not only smartphones but also laptops, PCs, and tablets that use memory semiconductors are under upward price pressure. Like smartphones, these segments are in the midst of shifting from LCD to OLED. Manish Bhatia, executive vice president of operations at Micron, the world's No. 3 memory semiconductor company, said in a recent media interview, "Smartphone and PC makers are lining up to secure volumes for after 2027," adding, "As major manufacturers concentrate capacity on HBM used in AI chips, the (memory semiconductor) supply shortage is unprecedented."
Kwon Min-gyu, an analyst at SK Securities, said, "The memory semiconductor shortage caused by AI infrastructure investment makes increases in total material costs for smartphones and laptops inevitable," adding, "Since price cuts are impossible in the supplier-dominant memory segment, displays—which account for 20% of total material costs and have relatively weaker bargaining power—will face intensifying pressure to lower unit prices."
◇ Samsung Display begins mass production of 8.6-generation IT OLEDs… concerns over entry by Chinese firms
In this environment, Samsung Display has begun producing 8.6-generation IT OLED panels. Compared with sixth-generation substrates, the company will mass-produce IT OLED panels on 2,290 mm × 2,620 mm mother glass that is more than twice as large. Producing more products per run will sharply reduce manufacturing costs, providing an advantage in securing "price competitiveness."
Samsung Display aims to preempt the OLED market—which is expected to account for about 10% of all IT panels by 2030—by leading with 8.6-generation production. A display industry official said, "The 8.6-generation line will be both a weapon to secure price competitiveness in the IT panel market, which is set to shift to OLED, and an alternative for display makers now facing price-cut pressure due to the memory crunch."
However, the emergence of the 8.6-generation IT OLED market also implies entry by Chinese firms, raising market concerns. Although Samsung Display has begun the world's first mass production, China's BOE and CSOT are poised to enter the market through large-scale investments. Chinese display makers have so far effectively failed to establish production lines for small and mid-sized OLED panels, which are difficult to mass-produce, but full-fledged competition is expected to unfold starting with the 8.6-generation. An analyst at a market research firm said, "If competition with China intensifies, the profitability of Samsung Display's 8.6-generation line may fall short of expectations."