The U.S. government has sent an ultra-hardline message to major chip-producing countries, including Korea, saying it will impose a 100% tariff unless they build plants in the United States, putting the domestic semiconductor industry on edge. As Taiwan secured a tariff waiver by pledging an astronomical level of investment in the United States, attention in the industry is turning to how Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will respond.
Howard Lutnick, the U.S. commerce secretary, said on the 17th (local time) at the groundbreaking for Micron's New York plant that there are only two choices for corporations that want to produce memory chips: pay a 100% tariff or produce directly in the United States. It is being taken as a declaration to push the Trump administration's "semiconductor self-sufficiency" line using tariffs as the tool.
This stance aligns with a shift in U.S. semiconductor policy. The United States once effectively gave up on memory chips and opted for a strategy centered on system semiconductors, but the spread of artificial intelligence (AI) and supply chain instability have combined to recast memory as a strategic industry. Rather than aiming for self-reliance through subsidies, however, the approach is to use the pressure tool of tariffs to draw investment from global corporations.
The level of U.S. demands is already evident from the Taiwan case. In a trade deal with Taiwan, the United States granted tariff exemptions on the condition of $250 billion (about 350 trillion won) in investment into the United States. Even if you combine the currently disclosed U.S. investment plans of Samsung Electronics (about $37 billion) and SK hynix (about $3.9 billion), the total is about $40.9 billion, just 16% of Taiwan's. Given that the United States recently proposed to Taiwanese corporations a method of exempting tariffs only up to 2.5 times the production capacity under construction and 1.5 times the completed production capacity, the industry sees a high possibility that a similar standard will be applied to Korea.
If so, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will have little choice but to fundamentally revisit their U.S. investment strategies. Samsung Electronics is building a foundry plant in Taylor, Texas, and SK hynix is investing in a packaging plant in the United States, but neither includes a memory production line. At the current investment scale, it is difficult to shield all memory export volumes from tariff risk. If U.S. demands take concrete shape, expanding investment in a memory fab in the United States could surface as a negotiation agenda item.
However, many note that expanding investment in the United States is not an easy decision from an expense standpoint. According to the industry, if a memory plant is built in the United States, investment costs are 20%–30% higher than in Korea, construction periods are 20%–30% longer, and production costs rise by more than 40%. The differences in labor costs, process infrastructure, and partner ecosystems are reflected all at once. As a result, the operating margin of U.S. plants is analyzed at about 58%, compared with 70% for Korean plants.
The domestic industry sees the tariff pressure as having a strong political message. With about 10 months left until the U.S. midterm elections, observers say the actual policy intensity could change with the political landscape. Given that local governments played big roles in attracting Samsung Electronics' Taylor plant and SK hynix's Indiana investment, skepticism is also emerging over whether the federal government can push additional investment with tariffs alone. Regarding Lutnick's hardline remarks, assessments continue that they are closer to political comments than policy design.
Some also say that even if tariffs materialize, the likelihood of a major shake-up across the memory market is limited. In a recent report, Nomura Securities said that if all memory makers face the same conditions, the cost burden will likely be passed on to customers. If memory demand continues with the spread of AI, the industry's overall profitability damage is deemed "manageable."
However, if this tariff pressure is not a one-off and the U.S. policy of supply chain reorganization continues, similar demands could be repeated. A semiconductor industry official said, "The fact that the United States brought up tariffs is ultimately pressure to increase production in the United States," adding, "This is not an issue that will be decided immediately, but from the corporations' perspective, we have no choice but to keep a close eye on U.S. investment variables."