A claim has been raised that the transfer of TSMC's production facilities to the United States will have a long-term impact on TSMC and the global semiconductor industry.
On the 14th, according to Taiwan media including United Daily News and China Times, Liu Peizhen, a researcher at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER), expressed concern, saying that if TSMC expands by five plants in the United States, its overall gross margin would fall to around 53%, lower than the gross margin of TSMC's Taiwan plants (60%–62%).
The construction of TSMC's five U.S. plants is estimated to require at least $100 billion (about 147 trillion won). Taiwan media reported that if TSMC expands by five wafer plants, the total would grow to 12 facilities in the United States, including wafer plants, advanced packaging plants, and research and development (R&D) centers, with investment reaching $300 billion (about 443 trillion won). They reported that if the Taiwan-style AI server supply chain model proposed to the United States is included, investment in the United States would exceed $400 billion (about 591 trillion won).
Researcher Liu said there is a high possibility that advanced processes related to artificial intelligence (AI) will be put into operation at TSMC's Arizona plant in the United States, and predicted that the production line operation model will shift from the current "Taiwan-centered" to a "Taiwan- and U.S.-centered" form.
At the same time, the researcher projected that if TSMC expands by five wafer plants in the United States, monthly capacity would reach 150,000 wafers, allowing it to meet related demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) from U.S. customers such as Nvidia and AMD.
However, the researcher projected that TSMC would face issues such as power and water resources, and securing engineers, which are necessary to operate five to eight wafer plants within a single region. Taiwan media reported, "The semiconductor production expense, equipment depreciation ratio, and labor and raw material expense at TSMC's U.S. plants are 2.4 times, about four times, and twice those in Taiwan, respectively."