Samsung Electronics is expected to raise this year's DRAM output to a level close to 8 million wafers (semiconductor substrates) on a wafer input basis. That would be about a 5% increase from last year's 7.6 million, with production centered on the Pyeongtaek plant and the quarterly average topping 2 million for the first time.
However, due to temporary capacity losses from the transition to the 10-nanometer 6th-generation DRAM (1c) process, it will likely be difficult to increase output as much as hoped. Because the level is far from enough to make up for the global memory shortage that has been plaguing the market, the industry expects the uptrend in high bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM prices to continue.
According to data obtained by ChosunBiz from market research firm Omdia on the 14th, Samsung Electronics' DRAM wafer output this year is estimated at 7.93 million. That is about a 5% increase from the previous year (7.59 million). SK hynix is also expected to increase DRAM output by about 8% from 5.97 million last year to around 6.48 million this year. As volumes from the Cheongju M15X plant, where capacity expansion investment was carried out, are added starting in the second half of this year, the increase is projected to be slightly higher than Samsung Electronics'. Micron is expected to post an annual output of around 3.6 million, similar to last year.
The industry expects the global DRAM supply shortage will be hard to ease until Samsung Electronics brings its new P4 plant at the Pyeongtaek campus online. Even if P4 is rushed, insiders and outsiders at Samsung Electronics see a high likelihood that it will be after 2027. SK hynix also can only significantly raise capacity when operations at the Yongin Semiconductor Cluster ramp up in earnest.
Even though this year's capacity at the three DRAM leaders—Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron—will be higher than a year earlier, there is a large gap with market demand. According to KB Securities, the fulfillment rate of DRAM demand from customers is at a low level of about 60%, and server DRAM is below 50%. In other words, supply is meeting only half of demand.
Market research firm TrendForce expects first-quarter DRAM contract prices this year to rise 55% to 60% from the previous quarter. Over the same period, NAND flash contract prices are also forecast to climb 33% to 38% on the back of surging server demand.
Meanwhile, as DRAM suppliers prioritize advanced process nodes and new production facilities for server and high bandwidth memory (HBM) products to meet growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) servers, major buyers such as PC and smartphone makers are also struggling, to the point that they can secure only about half the memory they need.
PC demand is slowing due to declining notebook shipments and spec downgrades, but as DRAM makers cut supplies to PC manufacturers and module firms, PC DRAM prices are expected to show a steep uptrend throughout the first half. Mobile DRAM is also facing ongoing shortages, and contract prices are expected to surge for the next few quarters. In the first quarter, server DRAM prices are expected to rise more than 60% from the previous quarter.