As Samsung Electronics posted a staggering operating profit of 20 trillion won in the fourth quarter last year, domestic and overseas experts see the full-fledged super boom in memory semiconductors beginning in the first quarter of this year. Accordingly, rosy forecasts are emerging that Samsung Electronics' annual operating profit this year could reach as much as 130 trillion won.
Earlier, Micron's surprise results and Samsung Electronics' fourth-quarter results last year are effectively a trailer for a memory "supercycle," and analyses are being offered that, starting this year, the memory shortage is intensifying on the back of growth in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry.
◇ "Name your price"… memory corporations' pricing power at an unprecedented level
Combining forecasts from major domestic and overseas securities firms and investment banks on the 8th, Samsung Electronics is expected to post operating profit of 100 trillion won to as much as 130 trillion won this year. While most domestic securities firms have taken operating profit of more than 100 trillion won as a given, some overseas investment banks, including Nomura, are putting out projections in the 120 trillion to 130 trillion won range.
Overseas experts are focusing on the point that this memory supercycle, unlike the usual demand-and-supply cycle in memory semiconductors, is a period of structural transformation. The current rise in memory prices is not a simple cyclical recovery but a structural problem in which supply cannot keep up with AI-related demand. For this reason, the pricing power of Samsung Electronics, the world's No. 1 memory semiconductor supplier, has risen to an unprecedented level, according to analyses.
Daniel Kim, a senior analyst at global investment bank Macquarie, said, "In the market, memory shortages are causing broad-based price spikes across industries." Kim noted, "With demand outstripping supply, buyers are willing to pay higher prices to secure supply," adding that "the increase in memory prices has been structurally reinforced by supply constraints rather than demand pull."
Market research firm IDC is also emphasizing the structural nature of the memory supercycle. In a recent report, IDC defined the current surge in memory prices as "not a temporary bottleneck that appears during a demand recovery phase, but a structural supply shortage that has arisen in the process of strategically reallocating global memory production capacity due to the expansion of AI infrastructure." As memory semiconductor manufacturers concentrate capacity on high bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI data centers and high-capacity DDR5 DRAM, supply of commodity DRAM and NAND flash used in smartphones and PCs has relatively contracted, spreading price pressure across downstream industries.
For now, there is little chance that DRAM supply—of which Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron collectively control 90% of the global market—will increase dramatically. That is because as recently as two years ago, the three suffered from falling DRAM prices and have been cautious about investing in DRAM capacity expansion.
IDC also said such supply constraints will be difficult to resolve in the short term, projecting that by 2026, the DRAM growth rate will be about 16% and the NAND flash growth rate will be around 17%. This is below historical averages, suggesting a strong possibility that structural supply shortages will persist. The industry believes this supply-demand environment is reshaping the memory market from buyer-led to a thoroughly supplier-dominant structure.
◇ Memory "shortages" spreading across electronics, IT, and autos
As semiconductor shortages arise across all areas, including AI servers, PCs, mobile, home appliances, and automobiles, prices of commodity DRAM and NAND are on a steadily upward trajectory. Recently, market research firm TrendForce projected that, in the first quarter of 2026, contract prices for commodity DRAM will rise as much as 60% from the previous quarter. It raised its previous forecast. It expected a rise of more than 60% for server DRAM. This outlook reflects a market structure in which, with shortages persisting, service providers accept price premiums to secure supply.
Even Morgan Stanley, which had offered conservative views of the semiconductor market in the past, is presenting figures far above consensus. In a recent report, Morgan Stanley raised its forecast, projecting that average DRAM prices in 2026 will rise about 62% and NAND prices 75%. On concerns raised in some quarters about potential declines in HBM prices, it said "downside risk for HBM prices is low," seeing no decline in prices for HBM3E (5th-generation HBM) and continued price strength for AI-use HBM.