Pearl Abyss is drawing market expectations ahead of the launch of its next blockbuster game "Crimson Desert," but its stock price is showing increased volatility. Preorder indicators and a rebound in earnings are positive, but a wait-and-see mood to confirm actual sales performance is overlapping with them.
According to the Korea Exchange (KRX) on the 5th, Pearl Abyss shares briefly topped the 40,000 won level intraday, but then closed at 37,700 won as profit-taking emerged. That was down 5.28% from the previous session. Considering that in Aug. last year the release window for "Crimson Desert" was pushed back again to the first quarter of this year, sending the stock tumbling 24% in a single day into the 20,000 won range, the recent price action is seen as a phase where expectations and caution intersect.
Following the start of preorders in Sept. last year and a turnaround to an operating profit of 10.6 billion won in the third quarter of last year, expectations for mid- to long-term results were partially revised up. Against this backdrop, brokerages are moving to reissue target prices for Pearl Abyss. Kiwoom Securities set a target price of 39,000 won for Pearl Abyss, and some in the market say there is room for additional hikes if initial sales of "Crimson Desert" are confirmed.
The preorder metrics are cited as evidence supporting these expectations. As of the 5th of this month, "Crimson Desert" ranked within the top 12 in preorder rankings on the domestic PlayStation (PS) Store. Given the growing share of digital downloads in the console game market, PS Store preorder rankings are evaluated as a representative leading indicator to gauge initial box office potential.
In particular, it is being exposed in the same window as global major IPs such as "Resident Evil Requiem," "Nioh 3," and "Dragon Quest 7 Re:Imagine," and analysts say it has secured a certain level of interest despite being a new IP. It is also holding within the top 20 on the PS Stores in North America and Europe, and on global PC platform Steam, its wishlist ranking is likewise in the top 20–30.
Pearl Abyss said in its third-quarter earnings conference call last year that global partners have observed "a preorder trajectory similar to other AAA titles." However, the market is also taking a cautious stance, noting that verification is needed on how much preorder readings will translate into actual early sales.
External conditions are also working somewhat favorably for Pearl Abyss. With Rockstar Games' "GTA 6," once cited as the biggest rival in the first half of 2026, delaying its release to the second half, "Crimson Desert," slated for Mar. 19, is seen as facing relatively less competitive pressure.
Brokerages view "Crimson Desert" as the key variable for a rebound in Pearl Abyss' results. Firms including NH Investment & Securities estimate first-year sales at 3.5 million to 5 million units, while Kiwoom Securities assumed initial quarterly package sales of about 3.75 million units. Based on that, Kiwoom Securities projected Pearl Abyss' 2026 revenue at 727.5 billion won and operating profit at 243.8 billion won.
However, medium- to long-term uncertainties remain. That is because the development schedule for "DokeV," cited as the next title after "Crimson Desert," has yet to be finalized. The securities industry says that if no progress on DokeV is disclosed, it may be excluded from estimates for 2027 and beyond. "Black Desert" Online, the existing main revenue source, also faces the task of defending sales amid intensifying global competition.