Unlike semiconductors, which are set to enter a boom cycle next year, the outlook for the display market is mixed. In the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) market, the main revenue source for domestic display corporations, smartphone shipment headwinds persist, while rapid adoption of OLED in IT devices such as tablets and laptops is shifting the center of growth. However, analysts said uncertainty in the IT OLED market has also increased due to the variable of a "memory crunch."
According to market researcher Omdia on the 19th, global OLED (including small OLED) panel revenue in 2026 is expected to rise about 5% from the previous year. The number alone suggests moderate growth, but a closer look shows a clear divergence depending on area and target market, such as large and small.
Small OLED for smartphones could lose growth momentum. Some market research firms see global smartphone shipments in 2026 falling from a year earlier. With replacement demand slowing, device prices rising, and geopolitical uncertainty overlapping, panel demand could also be affected. As a result, a conservative view holds that the entire small OLED market could enter a stagnation phase.
On the other hand, some say the direction of growth is merely shifting and that contraction fears are overblown. For smartphone OLED panels, shipment growth is limited, but revenue could be defended or rise slightly as the share of high-spec panels such as low-temperature polycrystalline oxide (LTPO) expands. In other words, the structure is shifting so that "product mix" rather than "volume" determines results.
The key variable behind the divergent outlooks is IT OLED. Omdia expects shipments of OLED panels for tablets in 2026 to increase by nearly 40% from the previous year, with OLED panels for laptops also growing more than 30%. As Apple and other major finished goods makers fully adopt OLED in tablets and laptops, IT's share within the small OLED market is expected to grow rapidly.
However, with DRAM and NAND flash prices continuing to surge, set manufacturers are adjusting launch schedules and volumes for PCs and tablets. Some even predict the PC and tablet market itself will shrink. This could be a headwind for Samsung Display, which has made large-scale investments in IT OLED production lines and waited a long time for the market to blossom.
Domestic panel makers such as Samsung Display and LG Display are revising strategies to reflect this trend. Samsung Display plans to increase the share of high-value products such as LTPO in smartphone OLEDs while responding flexibly to market conditions for OLEDs used in tablets, laptops, and monitors.
LG Display is focusing on upsizing and a premium strategy, banking on increased area in OLED TVs. The larger the share of extra-large products such as 77-inch and 83-inch, the more panel shipment area and average selling price (ASP) rise together. A display industry official said, "Next year's large OLED market is categorized as an 'area of certain growth amid uncertainty,'" and explained, "Unlike small OLEDs centered on smartphones, which are exposed to variables such as slower replacement demand and lower set shipments, large OLEDs have structural factors such as premium TV demand and an upsizing trend underpinning growth."