Market research firm Counterpoint Research on the 17th projected that next year's global smartphone shipments will fall 2.1% from this year due to rising memory expense.
Hwang Min-seong, a Counterpoint research fellow, said, "The segment taking the biggest hit right now is the sub-$200 budget market," adding, "Since the start of the year, the bill of materials (BOM) has risen 20% to 30%." Hwang went on to explain, "In the mid-to-high-end market as well, the bill of materials is rising by around 10% to 15%."
According to Counterpoint's latest memory solutions report for Generative AI, memory prices could rise an additional 40% by the second quarter of 2026, which means the bill of materials (BOM) could already be at least 8% to more than 15% higher than now.
Counterpoint Research expects next year's average selling price (ASP) of smartphones to rise 6.9% from this year. That is an upward revision from the previously released ASP forecast (3.9%) in Sep. 2025.
Wang Yang, a Counterpoint Research analyst, said, "Apple and Samsung Electronics will be in the most favorable position over the next few quarters," adding, "However, it will be a difficult environment for companies that lack sufficient room to adjust between market share and profitability." Wang added, "This trend will become more pronounced over time, especially among Chinese manufacturers."
Counterpoint Research noted that in recent months some manufacturers have adopted a strategy of lowering specifications to ease expense pressures. Bai Shenghao, a Counterpoint analyst, said, "In some smartphone models, we are seeing cases of downgrading specifications not only for camera modules and periscope solutions, displays, and audio components, but also memory configurations," adding, "Strategies are being used such as reusing existing components, streamlining product portfolios, nudging consumers toward higher-spec 'Pro' models, or adopting new designs to spur replacement demand."