Despite worries about an "artificial intelligence (AI) bubble," forecasts for next year's results at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix keep getting revised upward. The implicit consensus had been that the two companies' combined annual operating profit would exceed 150 trillion won, with Samsung Electronics at 83 trillion won and SK hynix at 75 trillion won. But after overseas market research firms projected an even steeper rise in next year's memory prices, expectations are building that each company will post operating profit approaching 100 trillion won.
Based on projections compiled on the 17th from major market research firms for next year's DRAM and NAND flash prices, DRAM and NAND are expected to continue rising by 15%–20%. TrendForce presented a base-case scenario of an 8%–15% increase in the average selling price (ASP) of DRAM and said supply shortages could deepen depending on market conditions. Counterpoint Research, citing expanded investment in AI data centers and delays in the normalization of memory supply, raised the possibility that next year's DRAM prices could climb as much as 20% on an annual basis.
Some say not only DRAM but also NAND flash supply shortages are severe. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have reduced production lines after years of deteriorating NAND profitability, and have reorganized capital expenditures around high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which has higher profitability, limiting the growth rate of NAND supply. Meanwhile, demand for high-performance solid-state drives (SSD), essential for AI data centers, is surging, intensifying the supply-demand mismatch.
TrendForce projects that in 2026, NAND will see annual demand growth of about 20%–22% and annual supply growth of about 15%–17%. With supply falling short of demand, it expects the average NAND price to rise by the high single digits to double digits (+8%–15%) from a year earlier, and notes enterprise NAND could climb by more than 25%.
Brokerages are therefore moving to raise their forecasts again for next year's results at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Kiwoom Securities estimates Samsung Electronics' annual operating profit next year at 107.612 trillion won. iM Securities presented an operating profit forecast of 93.843 trillion won for SK hynix over the same period. Samsung Electronics' all-time high annual operating profit was 58.89 trillion won in 2018, and SK hynix posted 23.4673 trillion won last year.
The key is that in next year's memory semiconductor market, the magnitude of price increases will vary by product, including high-bandwidth memory (HBM), commodity DRAM, and NAND. For the three memory leaders—Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron—the idea is that "what to sell" rather than "how much more to sell" could determine results, to maximize margins.
SK hynix, which has consistently held the No. 1 position in the HBM market, is most likely to see the largest ASP uplift if shipments centered on fifth-generation HBM (HBM3E) expand and strong AI server demand continues. The market expects server- and HBM-centered profitability to remain superior in 2026 as well. However, for sixth-generation HBM (HBM4) products, the technology level starts virtually on the same footing as Samsung Electronics, leaving variables.
Samsung Electronics maintains an overwhelming No. 1 position by memory shipment volume, but the pace of HBM market share recovery is key. As Samsung Electronics' HBM3E shipments have recently increased, if commodity DRAM and NAND prices rise together, both volume and price effects could work in tandem, likely leading to a sharp improvement in the memory division's results.