A forecast says Apple, boosted by the popularity of the iPhone 17 series, will overtake Samsung Electronics by shipments for the first time in 14 years to become the world's largest smartphone maker.
Bloomberg reported on the 25th (local time) that market research firm Counterpoint Research said in a recent report that Apple is expected to take the No. 1 spot in the global smartphone market by shipments this year with a 19.4% share.
Counterpoint Research said Samsung's Galaxy smartphones are expected to grow only 4.6% this year from a year earlier, while iPhone sales are projected to rise 10% year over year.
Apple has maintained the top spot among global smartphone makers by revenue thanks to its focus on premium smartphones. Samsung Electronics pursued a strategy of releasing smartphones at a wide range of prices from budget to premium. This is the first time since 2011 that Apple has surpassed Samsung Electronics by shipments. In particular, the iPhone 17 series, released in Sep. last year, received a strong response in the United States and China.
Yang Wang, an analyst at Counterpoint, said, "In addition to the positive response to the iPhone 17 series, the replacement cycle has come around for consumers who bought smartphones during the COVID-19 period."
Counterpoint Research expects Apple will not lose its No. 1 position by shipments at least through 2029. From 2023 to the second quarter of 2025, 358 million used iPhones were also sold, and it sees a strong chance that those users will buy new iPhones within a few years. This outlook was also influenced by expectations that Apple will release a foldable iPhone and a budget "iPhone 17e."
Counterpoint Research expects the overall smartphone market to grow 3.3% this year from a year earlier.
Apple CEO Tim Cook, shortly after he released a record quarterly revenue of $102.5 billion at the end of Oct., signaled confidence in continued growth, saying in media interviews that iPhone unit sales and revenue during the holiday season are expected to hit a record high. He said, "Consumer response to the iPhone 17 series is beyond imagination."
Apple has unveiled new smartphones every September, but there is also an outlook that starting next year it will split new launches into the first and second half. The strategy is to lift sales by releasing budget models in the first half and premium models in the second half. However, Apple is reportedly delaying the launch of a successor to the ultra-thin smartphone "iPhone Air," which is selling worse than expected.