OpenAI simultaneously appeared as No. 2 on the list of "AI corporations most likely to collapse first" and No. 2 on the list of "most desirable unlisted corporations to invest in."
According to Business Insider and other foreign media on the 16th (local time), the result came from an unofficial poll conducted at the "Cerebral Valley AI Conference," a global artificial intelligence (AI) event held in San Francisco. The poll was run in real time during the event by independent journalist Eric Newcomer, who hosted the conference. Major AI industry corporations, including Anthropic and xAI, participated as panelists.
While there was broad agreement on site that "the AI market is in a bubble," results drew more attention because it is rare for questions like "which corporation will collapse first" to be openly discussed. The No. 1 corporation deemed most likely to collapse was the AI search service "Perplexity." It has stood at the center of the bubble debate with frequent fundraising and an aggressive growth strategy. Perplexity wryly responded, "Sounds like the Judgment Valley Conference."
There was also reaction in the industry that including OpenAI at No. 2 was unexpected. It is a leading corporation that has captured the consumer market with ChatGPT and is widely regarded as being ahead in technology, talent, and ecosystem. However, analysis suggests that its multibillion-dollar valuation and a long-term infrastructure investment commitment reaching $1.4 trillion have fueled investor anxiety.
However, the mood shifted in the "most preferred unlisted AI corporations to invest in if one could invest now" institutional sector. Anthropic ranked No. 1 and OpenAI No. 2, underscoring that growth potential relative to valuation is still rated highly. Perplexity also made the upper tier of investment preferences.
At the venue that day, there was also the assessment that "a bubble is a natural process in technological progress, and in the end the corporations that survive will dominate the market." Ilya Fushman, a partner at Kleiner Perkins, stressed, "Every technology cycle is essentially a bubble," while angel investor Elad Gil said, "As with the dot-com bubble, some will become giants and the rest will disappear."