As the slump in the global TV market drags on, TV shipments in the third quarter of this year fell below 50 million units for the first time on record. As mobile devices such as smartphones replace TVs and lengthen replacement cycles, and even the impact of subsidies for appliance purchases in the largest market, China, has faded, TV demand has been slow to recover.
◇ As the effect of China's subsidies ends, demand plunges… "bigger screens" also lose steam
According to market research firm TrendForce on the 5th, global TV shipments in the third quarter came to 49.75 million units, down 4.9% from a year earlier. With the year-end peak season approaching, including Black Friday and Christmas, fourth-quarter shipments are expected to rebound slightly to 53.21 million units from the third quarter, but it will likely be difficult to avoid negative growth for the year. TrendForce forecast total TV shipments this year at about 196 million units, a 1.2% decline from last year.
TV demand, which had been sluggish, weakened further in the third quarter as Chinese TV demand, which had driven the market since last year, slowed. As the Chinese government provided subsidies for consumption of energy-efficient appliances to boost the economy, the surge in TV buying has begun to cool. Park Jin-han, a director at market research firm Omdia, said, "There is a sense that the Chinese government's fiscal support is winding down at the end of this year, and in the fourth quarter Chinese TV companies' panel demand is decreasing by about 2 million units year over year," and added, "Following this year, the TV market is expected to stagnate next year as well, with a 2% decline in unit terms."
To make matters worse, the "bigger screens" trend that had supported the TV market has also lost momentum. Although TVs 60 inches and larger accounted for more than 28% for the first time this year, the growth pace is slowing, according to a common assessment across the industry. Shipments of 65-inch models have stagnated, while the growth rate for 75-inch models was only 13%, about half of last year's level. Extra-large TVs such as 85-inch and 98-inch are showing a similar trend. David Hsieh, a senior analyst at Omdia, said, "The TV market is no longer growing in unit terms," and noted, "Consumers are choosing larger screens, but the shift toward larger sizes is not what it used to be."
◇ Hisense closes in on Samsung… "China aims to defend No. 1"
In this environment of overall market contraction, fortunes diverged by company. In third-quarter TV brand share (by shipments), Samsung Electronics ranked first with 18.3%, and China's Hisense rose to second with 15.4%. China's TCL ranked third (14.3%), followed by LG Electronics (9.3%) and Xiaomi (7.0%). Samsung Electronics kept the lead, but its overall TV shipments have been declining in recent years due to a reduced mix of small and mid-size models and intensifying competition with Chinese brands.
By contrast, Hisense, China's largest TV maker, seized the downturn as an opportunity to pursue the leaders. In the second half, Hisense began aggressive price cuts in domestic and overseas markets, lifting third-quarter shipments to 7.66 million units, up 9.7% from the previous quarter. Its market share hit a record high, and the gap with Samsung Electronics narrowed to just 2.9 percentage points. Jung Yoon-sung, a senior vice president at Omdia, said, "Among Chinese TV makers, the phrase 'Jeokseong' (Red Star, meaning a drive to pull Samsung down) is openly circulating," and added, "They are telling panel makers that if the price is right, they will take more volume than Korean companies, showing a strong will to expand share." He added, "Chinese TV makers are declaring, 'We will be No. 1 at next year's World Cup,' expressing confidence."
◇ China accelerates investment in mini LED TVs… Korea-led OLED TVs stagnate
To reach the top of the market, Chinese companies are speeding up investment in mini LED TVs, known as "premium LCD (liquid crystal display)." Centered on Hisense and TCL, they are expanding lineups of high-end products that apply mini LED backlights, moving to strengthen technological competitiveness. Director Park said, "Mini LED TVs alone are expected to increase by about 6 million units this year from a year earlier to about 17 million units," and explained, "China is expanding mini LED adoption not only in high-end models but also in mid- to low-end lineups."
By contrast, the OLED (organic light-emitting diode) TV market, another premium segment led by Korea, is losing growth momentum. Park said, "Outside of Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics, there are no new entrants to the OLED TV market, so the growth rate is falling far below previous expectations," and projected, "In the long term, annual shipments will not reach 8 million units in 2032."