As Apple's iPhone 17 series enjoys stronger-than-expected demand, Samsung Display and LG Display appear to be virtually sweeping the supply of the key component, organic light-emitting diode (OLED) panels. China's largest display panel maker, BOE, is understood to be having trouble supplying panels smoothly due to quality issues. With Samsung Display and LG Display accounting for more than 98% of iPhone 17 panel volumes, the two companies' earnings outlooks are brightening.
According to display market research firm UBI Research on the 28th, the total number of OLED panels deployed in the iPhone 17 series through this month is estimated at 88.9 million units. Apple's panel procurement network is a three-way contest among Samsung Display, LG Display, and BOE. Of these, Samsung Display shipped about 57.3 million units, taking 64.5% of the total, followed by LG Display with 30.3 million (34.1%). BOE, by contrast, delivered about 1.3 million units (1.4%).
The industry expects that on the back of solid iPhone 17 sales, domestic display makers' panel shipments will also exceed expectations. Apple improved major specs such as the camera, display, and battery in the iPhone 17 series while freezing prices. In particular, the base model is seen as offering strong value for money, with improved chipset performance, screen brightness, and front camera image quality. Reflecting that, in China, one of the largest markets for the iPhone, sales of the base model nearly doubled from the previous generation, Counterpoint Research analyzed. In line with this trend, Japan's Mizuho Securities raised its annual shipment forecast for the iPhone 17 by 6.8% to 94 million units from 88 million.
Apple has reorganized its panel supply chain this year to match the four iPhone 17 models (Air, base, Pro, and Pro Max). Samsung Display supplies panels for all models, maintaining its position as the largest supplier by volume. However, the lower-priced Air and base models account for about 60% of its mix. LG Display handles three models—Air, base, and Pro Max—with the top-tier Pro Max accounting for 70% of its total volume. Panel prices are about $40 for the base model and $60–$70 for the Pro Max, roughly 1.5 times higher. Industry watchers say, "Apple removed LG Display from the Pro lineup to give BOE the Pro model panels, but the plan is going awry due to BOE's quality issues."
Despite Apple's strategic "covering fire," BOE is seen as failing to overcome technical limits. Kim Jun-ho, a researcher at UBI Research, said, "As BOE struggles with production for the Pro model, the supply of panels for the base model—which was aiming for year-end certification—has also become uncertain," adding, "This year, BOE's panel deliveries are expected to fall by more than 1 million units from the already downgraded outlook of 3 million units." Accordingly, the industry expects this year's iPhone 17 series panel supply to reach 83–88 million units for Samsung Display, 46 million for LG Display, and 2 million for BOE.
Riding the iPhone 17 boom, earnings at Samsung Display and LG Display are also improving. As of the 26th, the consensus operating profit forecast for LG Display in the third quarter of this year stood at 440.4 billion won, nearly double the level six months ago (223.4 billion won). Brokerages expect LG Display to post an "earnings surprise" in the third quarter and return to an annual profit for the first time in four years. Park Kang-ho, a researcher at Daishin Securities Co., said, "LG Display's share within the iPhone has steadily risen over the past two to three years, and this structural shift is feeding through to better results," projecting a profit of about 859 billion won this year.
Samsung Display is also expected to continue a solid earnings trajectory. Brokerages see Samsung Display's third-quarter operating profit at 1.2 trillion–1.4 trillion won, more than double the previous quarter's 500 billion won. Lim So-jung, a researcher at EUGENE INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, said, "Helped by strong sales at major clients such as Apple's iPhone, the third-quarter operating margin will improve significantly from 7.8% in the previous quarter." KB Securities forecast Samsung Display's second-half operating profit at 2.5 trillion won, slightly up from last year's 2.4 trillion won, while Hyundai Motor Securities put it at 2.7 trillion won. Both brokerages expect Samsung Display to maintain an average operating margin of more than 15% in the second half, delivering stable revenue.