Hit by weak demand and falling prices for commodity DRAM, Samsung Electronics is increasing its wafer (semiconductor substrate) input to prepare for an upswing cycle expected to run from the second half of this year into next year. SK hynix is also believed to have ramped up to maximum capacity to meet demand in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and commodity DRAM markets.
According to Omdia market research data obtained by ChosunBiz on the 22nd, Samsung Electronics' DRAM wafer input as of the end of the third quarter this year (3Q total) is projected to be 1.93 million, up 5% from the first quarter. With expansion underway at the Pyeongtaek campus, Samsung Electronics' DRAM output is expected to top 2 million per quarter next year, reaching an all-time high.
As a significant portion of DRAM output from the big three—Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron—is being allocated to HBM, prices are continuing to rise in major DRAM applications such as servers, PCs, and mobile, and leading market research firms expect this trend to intensify. Some predict a DRAM boom next year. In response, Samsung Electronics is expected to move to regain market share with its next-generation DRAM process, the sixth-generation 10-nanometer (1c).
Samsung Electronics is said to be increasing DRAM wafer input centered on its Pyeongtaek plant, which still has ample room for capacity expansion investment. According to the industry, the DRAM production lines at the Pyeongtaek plant are expected to reach maximum capacity in the fourth quarter this year. If additional equipment is installed for the new P4 process, average quarterly output is expected to exceed 1 million, accounting for about 50% of Samsung Electronics' total DRAM production.
SK hynix is also gradually increasing DRAM output. Last year, when demand was weak, quarterly wafer input hovered around 1.3 million, but with HBM supply rising sharply, it has stayed in the mid-1.5 million range since this year and is expected to approach the maximum capacity of 1.6 million within the year. However, until the Yongin semiconductor cluster is completed, there is not enough land to expand investment, so the pace of capacity expansion is slower than Samsung Electronics.
The current DRAM supply-demand situation favors Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. According to market research firm DRAMeXchange, the average fixed transaction price in August for standard PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8) rose 46.15% from the previous month to $5.7. DDR4 DRAM products began rising at the end of March ($1.35) and have more than quadrupled in five months. DRAM prices have been on an upward curve for five consecutive months.
Kim Kwang-jin, an analyst at Hanwha Investment & Securities, said, "We initially expected server DRAM demand driven by artificial intelligence (AI) to ease somewhat toward year-end, but it remains very strong," and added, "Key server DRAM contract prices will keep rising through the end of this year, with the pace of increase also widening compared with the third quarter."
The slump among Chinese corporations, which had been the biggest variable for commodity DRAM prices, is also working to the advantage of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Kim said, "China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is taking longer than expected to shift to DDR5, making it difficult to enter the server high-speed product market," adding, "Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have very low DDR5 inventory levels, creating an environment that inevitably fuels price increases."
Meanwhile, the securities community expects the memory supply shortage to continue into next year. U.S. financial firm Susquehanna said, "Across the industry, the focus is more on margin improvement than on expanding revenue share," and added, "Commodity DRAM prices are also expected to rise year over year in 2026." Morgan Stanley also noted, "(Memory) cycle indicators are instead seen reaching a peak pattern around 2027," adding, "As the dynamics of the memory industry change, shortages are occurring everywhere."