Korea's massively multiplayer online role-playing game (MMORPG) market is entering a period of upheaval. The solo run by NCSOFT that continued after the 2017 launch of Lineage M is being shaken by the success of new titles from Netmarble and Nexon, and with NCSOFT's next-generation blockbuster joining in Nov., observers say a shift in the landscape is inevitable.
According to the game industry on the 17th, the Lineage series has reigned as the unchallenged powerhouse of Korea's mobile MMORPGs for the past seven years. Lineage M, which leaned on auto-hunting and a high-spending business model (BM), held the No. 1 spot in Google Play revenue for an extended period, outpacing rivals. However, recent Google Play revenue rankings show that Netmarble's new title Vampir has overtaken Lineage M and maintained No. 1 for a long stretch, reshaping the market structure. With user fatigue piling up and operational controversies overlapping, cracks are forming in the Lineage regime.
Netmarble's in-house IP title Vampir, launched on the 26th of last month, leans on a gothic horror worldview. As of the 14th, 20 days after launch, it logged $25 million (about 34.7 billion won) in cumulative global revenue. Notably, it ranked No. 1 in Google revenue for 13 straight days, signaling a move beyond short-term success toward long-term traction. Mirae Asset Securities said, "Vampir's initial daily revenue was in the 3 billion won range and is still holding in the 2 billion won range," raising Netmarble's target price to 90,000 won. DS Investment & Securities noted, "This year, Netmarble's new-title hit rate has reached 75%," saying its publishing capabilities should be re-evaluated.
Nexon sought differentiation with Mabinogi Mobile, officially released in the first half of this year. Moving away from competition- and PvP-centric structures, it strengthened life and co-op content, drawing in users in their teens and 20s. With features such as an ensemble system, guild co-op content, and board game-style mini-games, it hit No. 1 on Google's popularity chart and No. 2 in revenue, and No. 1 in App Store revenue right after launch. It has since slipped to No. 13 in Google Play revenue, but evaluations say it is sustaining user loyalty and long-term operational success rather than relying on short-term monetization. The industry is watching its global prospects, saying it has created a new MMORPG paradigm to the extent that the neologism "Mobinogi-like" has emerged. On the 19th, it will hold its first large-scale update showcase, Big Campfire, and unveil a roadmap including the new main scenario Goddess Descent Chapter 3: Paladin, higher-tier runes, and a max level expansion to 85.
NCSOFT is mounting a counterattack with Aion 2. Pre-registration began on the 11th, and pre-downloads will be available starting Nov. 16. The official launch will take place on Nov. 19 simultaneously in Korea and Taiwan. Developed as the official sequel to Aion, the new title highlights top-tier graphics and Abyss, faction-versus-faction combat, and moves away from the Lineage-style monetization model by centering its BM on a membership pass and cosmetic customization. NH Investment & Securities raised its target price to 300,000 won, projecting Aion 2's initial daily revenue at about 2.5 billion won in total, including 1.8 billion won in Korea and 700 million won in Taiwan.
The industry expects the second-half MMORPG competition to intensify as heavyweight new titles join in succession. With Com2uS' The Starlight and WEBZEN's new R2 Origin, set for release on the 25th, joining the fray, the shift in the landscape is expected to accelerate. A game industry official said, "For blockbuster MMORPGs, what matters is not simply whether they reach No. 1 in revenue, but how long they can hold their ground in the market," adding, "They must prove not only sustained success in the domestic market but also the potential for global expansion."