"Most companies outside of one or two will most likely work with only one or two HBM suppliers. So for a good portion of the market going from three suppliers down to two or even one, obviously changes the landscape in a very dramatic way."
Sumit Sadana, the chief business officer of Micron, the world's third-largest memory semiconductor company, recently said this. Behind his provocative statement lies a cold realization that "the feast due to supply shortages has ended." This contrasts sharply with the previous atmosphere where corporations trying to make artificial intelligence (AI) chips were struggling to secure HBM.
Kiwoom Securities analyzed in a report on the 11th that starting from 2026, the growth rate of HBM supply (+62%) will first exceed the growth rate of demand (+52%). Until now, the overall supply of the HBM market has failed to keep pace with demand, where securing production capacity quickly translated into sales. However, this indicates that competition for market share will intensify in order to be chosen by client corporations. Consequently, there are forecasts that the price of the fifth-generation HBM (HBM3E) could drop by up to 30% in 2026.
The key reason Micron is advocating for a "narrowing of suppliers" is the advent of the 'custom HBM' era. From the sixth generation of HBM (HBM4), companies must incorporate specific logic circuits desired by client corporations into the "base die," the lowest layer of HBM, rather than just stacking DRAM high. This necessitates deep cooperation with a small number of trustworthy partners, as it involves years of joint research and development (R&D) and significant verification expenses.
Micron is determined to ride this trend and shed its label as the third-place player in the industry to rise to the top. Recently, they revised upward their earnings forecast for the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year (June to August 2025), expressing confidence that they will be able to sell all of their HBM production in the upcoming year. This sends a message to client corporations that even in a surplus supply phase, they can be the "ultimate choice."
Micron's aggressive strategy has made the calculations for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix more complex. Samsung Electronics' strategy focuses on turning "the difficulties of a short-term battle into long-term opportunities." Given the ongoing quality verification of NVIDIA's HBM3E 12-layer products, Kiwoom Securities projected that even if Samsung passes the qualification test, its market share for NVIDIA's HBM3E will be limited to around 10% in 2026. However, it analyzed that in the upcoming crucial HBM4 market, Samsung could elevate its market share to 30%, turning the tables. If successful in its HBM4 offensive, Samsung's HBM sales in 2026 are projected to grow more than double compared to this year.
SK hynix, which has reigned as the "absolute powerhouse" in the HBM market, must defend its throne as a key supplier to NVIDIA while fending off Micron's pursuit and Samsung Electronics' counterattack. In contrast to Micron's cries of "selling out by 2026," SK hynix is still negotiating not only next year's quantities with NVIDIA but also initial specifications for HBM4. It seems like a complex equation to solve. Predictions that SK hynix's HBM sales growth rate will be 14% in 2026, somewhat slower than its competitors, reflect this intense power struggle.
In the memory semiconductor industry, the fates of winners and losers have diverged greatly every time the rules of the game change. Surpassing an already established gap has not been easy. The HBM market is also entering a new phase, shifting from "who can produce more" to "who can build deeper relationships with customers." Micron has fired the starting gun for this shift, highlighting that most customers will likely limit their collaboration to one or two suppliers.