In the second quarter of this year, global laptop shipments reached their highest level in three years. Manufacturers rushed to push out shipments in response to heightened U.S. tariff threats throughout the first half of the year, and consumers hurried to buy before prices rose due to tariffs. However, analysis suggests that this is not a result of a market recovery but rather a reflection of demand anticipated for the second half being pulled forward. The industry is predicting that the second half, typically considered a peak season, may actually face sluggish performance.
According to market research firm Digitimes, global laptop shipments in the second quarter of this year totaled 47.086 million units, marking the highest figure since the second quarter of 2022. This represents an increase of 11.8% compared to the previous quarter and a rise of 8.3% year-on-year. The dramatic increase in shipments is attributed to threats of a tariff bomb from the U.S. This includes the potential of imposing high tariffs on imports under the guise of 'national security' using the 'Trade Expansion Act Section 232' card, which the Trump administration has been considering.
In particular, during the first half of the year, the threat that IT devices, including laptops made in China, could become targets of Section 232 investigations became more concrete. As approximately 90% of laptops worldwide are produced in China, if this measure is realized, global PC companies would face a direct blow. Accordingly, laptop brands rushed to ship significant quantities of laptops to the U.S. during the tariff exemption period to avoid the unpredictability of the worst-case scenario. Some consumers also started purchasing early in anticipation of rising laptop prices due to future tariffs.
However, companies are predicting that the temporary boom in the second quarter will return as a bill in the second half. It is explained that the unusually high shipment volume in the second quarter, in a situation where overall IT device demand has not revived, inevitably leads to a shortage of demand in the second half. Digitimes forecasts that starting from the third quarter, laptop demand will shrink again due to high inventory burdens in U.S. distribution channels, a contraction in PC replacement demand due to corporations prioritizing investments in artificial intelligence (AI) hardware, and the global education market entering its off-season.
Specific projections also support the notion of sluggish market demand. Laptop shipments in the third quarter are expected to be 45.595 million units, a decrease of 3.2% compared to the second quarter, and in the fourth quarter, which is the year-end peak season, the figure is anticipated to drop by another 7.9% to 41.999 million units. Compared to the same period last year, these numbers represent decreases of 1.0% and 7.8%, respectively. Initially, there was high hope that the demand for device upgrades triggered by the Windows 10 service termination and AI laptops would lead to growth in the laptop market this year, but the overall annual laptop shipments are projected to be 176 million units, merely a growth of 0.8%.
With a contraction in the market forecast for the second half, the top three laptop market players—Lenovo, HP, and Dell—are expected to experience a downturn in third-quarter shipments due to the 'push-out' effect from the second quarter. Notably, Lenovo, which is heavily dependent on the Chinese market, is likely to face the dual challenges of U.S. tariff pressures and diminishing subsidy effects in the domestic market. Similarly, HP and Dell are expected to see weakened shipment momentum due to excessive inventory burdens and continued sluggishness in the corporate PC market.
Some companies are expected to pursue strategies that counter the market trends as part of their survival tactics. For example, Apple is analyzed to possibly offset some of the market downturn due to the replacement demand from its loyal customer base that follows its new product launch cycle. Predictions suggest that the third-quarter back-to-school promotions and the launch of the new MacBook with the next-generation M5 chip will support shipment volumes. Asus has opted to produce units for the fourth quarter in advance during the third quarter as a last resort to meet annual performance targets. Acer's 'de-China' strategy, having moved its production base to Vietnam, is also expected to yield benefits. Being relatively free from tariff risks stemming from China, Acer can leverage its stable supply capabilities to target the U.S. market while competitors hesitate. An industry insider noted, 'Tariff risks have become a constant throughout the Trump administration,' adding that 'ultimately, the survival of corporations hinges on fundamental restructuring such as supply chain diversification.'