Last year, the artificial intelligence (AI) server market grew rapidly, but this year uncertainty has increased due to factors such as U.S. chip export regulations.
On the 12th, according to market research firm TrendForce, global AI server shipments last year increased by 46% compared to the previous year, driven by strong demand. However, U.S. restrictions on semiconductor exports to China and the impact of the Chinese generative AI service DeepSeek are expected to affect AI server shipments this year.
Based on this uncertainty, TrendForce presented three scenarios for the outlook of the AI server market this year. The most likely scenario is that global AI server shipments will grow by approximately 28% compared to last year, supported by increased investments in AI infrastructure by big tech companies.
In contrast, the worst-case scenario is a slowdown in the growth rate of AI server shipments to 20–25%. Factors contributing to this scenario include increased market uncertainty due to tighter U.S. export regulations on AI chips, delays in releases from NVIDIA, and the influence of DeepSeek lowering dependence on high-end AI solutions.
The most optimistic scenario is that AI projects like Stargate gain momentum, resulting in AI server shipments increasing by nearly 35% compared to last year.
Moreover, if DeepSeek influences the adoption of high-end chips, TrendForce expects that this will have a positive impact on AI server shipments in terms of leading the expansion of AI applications.