Sam Altman, the chief executive officer (CEO) of OpenAI, forecasted that the expense for utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) will decrease tenfold each year. He argued that due to the groundbreaking development of AI, the era of artificial general intelligence (AGI) will soon arrive, and that the benefits of AI should be fairly distributed to everyone.
On the morning of the 10th, Altman noted on his personal blog, "The expense of using a specific AI is projected to decrease tenfold every 12 months, and as the price drops, usage has dramatically increased." He cited the case where the price per token dropped approximately 150 times from GPT-4 to last year's GPT-4o, saying, "The speed of AI development is unbelievably faster than Moore's Law."
He continued to say that the socio-economic value of AI, which increases linearly, is inherently increasing exponentially, noting that investment in AI will continue to rise and this investment trend will not cease. Altman stated, "Systems approaching AGI are increasingly taking shape," and added, "The scale of economic growth we will encounter in the future will be astounding." He further imagined, "We could envision a world where all diseases are cured, time spent with family increases, and creative potential is fully realized."
He remarked, "Thus, the coming future will approach us in an undeniable way, and the long-term socio-economic changes will be monumental," adding, "In ten years, everyone on Earth might be able to achieve more than the most influential individuals today."
However, Altman predicted that the economic changes brought by the AGI era will result in uneven influence of AI. For example, while most commodity prices will fall, prices of certain inherently limited goods, such as luxury items and real estate, will surge.
Altman emphasized that reaching a social consensus on utilizing AI will be very important, stating, "There should be discussions on providing users with more control, such as releasing more open-source materials, and balancing safety with individual empowerment."
He highlighted, "Technological advancements have historically improved health, economic prosperity, and so on, in average, long-term ways, but reducing inequality is not technically guaranteed," and stressed, "It is important to ensure that the benefits of AGI are broadly distributed. Many talents that have not realized their potential may be able to express their creativity in the future." He proposed solutions such as providing a 'computing budget' so that everyone can utilize AI or drastically reducing the cost of AI usage.
Meanwhile, Altman posted this article ahead of his participation in the 'AI Summit for Action' taking place in Paris, France, for two days starting on the 10th (local time). He previously pointed out through a contribution to Le Monde that the European Union (EU) should create an environment for the advancement of AI technology, stating, "European regulators need to consider what outcomes their decisions could bring about in the future while others are advancing."