Due to the decline in prices of general-purpose memory semiconductors caused by oversupply, it is forecasted that memory prices, including DRAM and NAND flash, will fall uniformly in the first quarter of this year. However, it is expected that high-value and advanced products, such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which have shown sustained robust demand following the emergence of the artificial intelligence (AI) market, will partially offset this trend.
According to market research firm TrendForce on the 1st, DRAM prices are expected to fall by 8 to 13% and NAND prices by around 10 to 15% in the first quarter of this year. TrendForce noted, "Memory companies will face an increase in inventory levels and deteriorating order demand in the first quarter of this year," adding that "the early inventory buildup by laptop manufacturers in anticipation of potential tariffs from the Trump administration has exacerbated the price decline."
Concerns have arisen in the industry that the semiconductor chill may be rekindled, as prices for server DRAMs, such as DDR5, and corporate solid-state drives (SSDs) have shifted downwards this year. However, demand for high-value memory related to AI, such as HBM and corporate SSDs, is expected to continue for the time being, leading to a prevailing outlook that a semiconductor recession similar to 2023 will not occur.
In fact, HBM is expected to maintain solid demand this year and drive overall DRAM performance. If HBM is included, the overall price decline for DRAM is projected to be around 0 to 5% in the first quarter of this year. TrendForce said, "HBM has emerged as a key growth driver in the DRAM industry, fueled by the surging AI demand," adding that "especially, HBM3E (5th generation) will maintain a tight supply in 2025."
SK Hynix has also dismissed concerns over a slowdown in HBM demand and oversupply last October, forecasting that "demand for HBM next year (2025) will increase more than expected as the rise in demand for AI chips and customers' willingness to expand AI investments have been confirmed."
Outside of HBM, it is expected that the price drop for server products like DDR5 and corporate SSDs will recover as early as the second quarter or in the latter half of the year. TrendForce mentioned that "demand for corporate SSDs will also increase in 2025," adding that "some suppliers are transitioning to high-capacity products of over 60 terabytes to meet expected demand next year."
However, the aggressive volume offensive from Chinese memory semiconductor company ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) could be a variable. CXMT, which had mainly produced the older DDR4, is reportedly now making the latest product, DDR5, for market release.