With the launch of the second Trump administration just a month away, SK Hynix has confirmed the receipt of subsidies under the Chips Act, while Samsung Electronics is reportedly weighing its options with the U.S. Department of Commerce. Unlike SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics is pushing for the establishment of a foundry production line that could reach tens of trillions of won in the long term. As a result, the amount of support may vary depending on the scale of equipment investment and the timing of operation, complicating the situation.
Industry insiders are raising the possibility that Samsung Electronics might see a reduction in subsidies similar to Intel, given its current foundry technology and investment trends. Samsung Electronics has initiated reforms for its foundry division ahead of the regular year-end personnel reshuffle, but it has struggled with poor yield rates in 3-nanometer (1 nanometer is one billionth of a meter) processes throughout last year, and the success of its 2-nanometer process remains uncertain. Therefore, there is a high risk of making a scale of equipment investment that meets the expectations of the U.S. government, which seeks to attract state-of-the-art production lines.
◇ U.S. completes subsidy negotiations with major semiconductor corporations... only Samsung remains
On the 19th (local time), the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will provide SK Hynix with direct subsidies of up to $458 million (approximately 665 billion won). The Department stated, "This subsidy will support SK Hynix's $3.87 billion (approximately 5.6 trillion won) project to build an advanced packaging production base for artificial intelligence (AI) memory in West Lafayette, Indiana." It also noted that it will provide up to $500 million (approximately 726 billion won) in government loans.
The Biden administration signed the final contracts for subsidies with Intel, Micron, and TSMC before SK Hynix. Intel is set to receive $7.8655 billion (approximately 11.415 trillion won), TSMC $6.6 billion (approximately 9.579 trillion won), and Micron $6.1655 billion (approximately 8.95 trillion won) in subsidies. The amount of subsidies confirmed for SK Hynix has slightly increased from the preliminary memorandum of understanding amount ($450 million) signed in August.
As a result, among the world's top five semiconductor manufacturers that have announced facility investments in the U.S., only Samsung Electronics has not yet finalized its subsidies. Samsung Electronics has signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding (PMT) to receive $6.4 billion (approximately 9.29 trillion won) in subsidies, committing to invest $45 billion (approximately 65.327 trillion won) in the U.S. by 2030. The Biden administration's subsidy execution process involves drafting preliminary memorandums with corporations, undergoing on-site inspections, and then signing final contracts. Even after signing the final contract, actual subsidy implementation occurs only when the indicators established in the agreement between the Department of Commerce and individual firms are met.
SK Hynix, which stamped its contract this time, appears to have rushed negotiations in advance of the uncertain Trump administration. SK Hynix plans to build an advanced semiconductor packaging plant in Indiana, starting mass production of next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and AI memory from the second half of 2028, with major clients expected to include NVIDIA and AMD.
In contrast, the situation for Samsung Electronics is different. Samsung Electronics, which is constructing a foundry fab for processes below 4 nanometers in Taylor, Texas, has delayed the pace of construction after completing the skeleton work compared to its initial target. Unlike HBM, where demand is explosively increasing in the U.S., Samsung Electronics is building a foundry plant that operates on a contract basis. Due to the continuing uncertainty in securing contracts with key U.S. customers such as NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and AMD, the investment scale is also more than eleven times larger than that of SK Hynix.
◇ U.S. urges faster operation of the Taylor plant… Samsung faces concerns over 'overinvestment'
The U.S. semiconductor law started getting serious attention after the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) raised alarm in 2020 about the lack of factories in the U.S. capable of producing advanced chips. In 1990, the U.S. accounted for 37% of global semiconductor production capacity, which plummeted to 12% in 2020, relying mostly on Taiwan and South Korea for cutting-edge processes. In other words, the semiconductor law aims to attract the highest level of chip production facilities to U.S. soil, providing subsidies to companies like Samsung Electronics and TSMC to encourage this.
The issue is that the situation for Samsung Electronics' foundry business is different from ten years ago. Starting in 2014, Samsung Electronics competed head-to-head with TSMC for cutting-edge processes, but over the past three years, it has failed to secure yields at 5-nanometer, 4-nanometer, and 3-nanometer levels, recording losses in trillions of won each quarter. Producing equipment that is estimated to require a minimum of 10 trillion won for each production line, including extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment exceeding 250 billion won each, may be detrimental under the contract-based nature of the foundry business.
Currently, the main point of the subsidy negotiations between Samsung Electronics and the U.S. Department of Commerce is said to revolve around the scale of equipment being put into the Taylor plant and the timing of its full operation. There appears to be a conflict between the U.S. Department of Commerce, which hopes to have the plant completed and operational as soon as possible, and Samsung Electronics, which wishes to reduce the pace of investment until the stabilization of its 3-nanometer and 2-nanometer processes.
Kim Hyuk-jung, a deputy researcher at the Institute for International Economic Policy's North America-Europe team, noted, "While other firms that announced investments later than Samsung Electronics are securing subsidies, the deliberations between Samsung Electronics and the Department of Commerce are dragging on," adding, "There is also a possibility that the subsidies discussed at the current stage differ from what was initially talked about in the memorandum of understanding."
◇ U.S. and Samsung, final contract is certain... The issue is timing and subsidy scale
The U.S. Department of Commerce plans to deplete the budget for semiconductor law subsidies as much as possible during the Biden administration's term. Accordingly, industry insiders believe there is no reason for the Department to deliberately delay the final contract with Samsung Electronics. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo emphasized that the semiconductor law is a "bipartisan measure," stating, "Through subsidies, the U.S. is solidifying its AI hardware supply chain in a way that no other country can replicate."
Some suggest that continuing final negotiations with the Trump administration may be an alternative for Samsung Electronics, depending on its long-term strategy. An industry source stated, "If the subsidy criteria set by the Biden administration are deemed excessive, Samsung Electronics might craft a strategy to renegotiate with the Trump administration." Researcher Kim mentioned, "Samsung Electronics is already constructing a plant in Taylor and has established agreements with local governments for water supply support and tax exemptions, making it unreasonable to scrap U.S. investment plans. Instead, the company will evaluate whether it is more beneficial to discuss the detailed indicators that form the basis for subsidies under either the Biden or Trump administration."
A senior executive at Samsung Electronics stated, "We are currently in ongoing discussions with the Department of Commerce about the scale of subsidies and investment methods, and we expect Samsung Electronics to sign the final contract soon. While we anticipate a signing during the Biden administration's term to avoid uncertainties, we cannot completely rule out the possibility of moving to the Trump administration if the discrepancies are not resolved."