With 50 days left until the U.S. midterm elections, an assessment has emerged that the "felt economy" will be the key battleground that decides voters' choices.
Political consultant Jang Seong-gwan, head of U.S. strategy at D&A Advisory, said at a forum hosted by the New York Consulate General on the 14th (local time), "In the United States, it is an established theory that voters' choices are already set six months before an election," conveying this view. Because most voters have already chosen a party, issues that move independents going forward will affect the final distribution of seats.
The biggest issue is price stability (affordability) in the felt economy. As fuel costs have risen due to the war with Iran and prices of groceries such as milk and eggs have also gone up, 77% of Americans are blaming President Donald Trump for inflation.
In particular, there are signs that public opinion trusts the Democratic Party more than the Republican Party to better address economic and living cost issues. With universal tariffs and retaliatory tariffs on Canada hitting key export industries in swing states, and fertilizer imports disrupted by the Iran war, Jang, the Deputy Minister, analyzed that farm voters in the Midwest ahead of the summer busy season have wavered.
There is also a trend of core supporters of President Trump peeling away. One-fifth of voters who supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election said they regret that vote. Support rates are dropping quickly among key groups, particularly men in their 20s and 30s, Hispanic men, and those in the Midwest agricultural base.
Amid this, controversies over artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers are likely to act as variables. Public opinion on data centers and artificial general intelligence (AGI), which had been an area of indifference until last year, deteriorated sharply in May.
Since early this year, the Democratic Party has put forward data center regulations and moratoriums as an election message. Under the Republican leadership's guidance for "autonomous responses," some gubernatorial candidates in swing states, despite being pro-Trump, are expressing reserved or skeptical positions on building data centers.
At this time, Jang, the Deputy Minister, analyzed that the essence of voter sentiment ahead of the midterms is "anti-establishment." He said that although ideological differences exist among progressive-leaning Zohran Mamdani, the New York mayor, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, and conservative-leaning President Trump and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, they share the commonality of stoking dissatisfaction with the existing political class and the establishment.
Jang, the Deputy Minister, assessed that the strong showings by Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) candidates are not so much a "leftward shift" as an expression of accumulated dissatisfaction with the establishment and party leadership. In this landscape, he forecast that the House will see the Democratic Party regain the majority, while the Senate will likely see the Republican Party maintain its majority status.
Historically, the House has disadvantaged the ruling party in midterms, and anti-establishment sentiment and high voter participation intent among Democratic supporters are expected to work in the Democrats' favor. By contrast, in the Senate, of the 35 seats up this election, Republicans have solid advantages, and considering their fundraising edge, structural limits are seen to make it difficult for Democrats to sweep all the battlegrounds.
Jang, the Deputy Minister, served as deputy secretary-general at the Korean American Grassroots Conference (KAGC) and as a delegate to the 2024 Democratic National Convention.