Prices of Chinese humanoids (human-shaped robots) are falling fast. In just two years, major companies' selling prices have dropped by more than 70%, and even consumer products in the 5 million won range have appeared. But falling prices do not immediately translate into commercialization, and some noted that work stability must be ensured. The industry predicted that market expansion will be determined not by the price of humanoids but by "how much the final expense falls when humanoids are deployed."
On the 14th, according to Chinese business outlet Sina Caijing, UBTECH started operating a smart factory on the 12th in Liuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China. One unit is produced every 10 minutes, with an annual capacity of up to 10,000 units. Industrial humanoid models such as the Walker S series and the Cruz series are produced there.
◇ Economies of scale realized… humanoids in the 5 million won range appear
Behind the expansion of production capacity is price decline. As major companies surpass or approach production capacities of more than 10,000 units, "economies of scale" have begun to appear across the industry, the explanation goes. The Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily said, "At this scale, even if production expense is not at the lowest level, it falls within a range that companies can fully handle," adding, "As purchase volumes grow, bargaining power for parts, dispersion of mold expenses, assembly efficiency, and Production yield continue to improve."
Localization of core components is also cited as a factor lowering unit production costs. According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the localization rate of core parts for Chinese humanoids has already surpassed 75%, and Morgan Stanley estimated that for some key components, the rate exceeds 90%. Excluding the Chinese supply chain, the expense per robot was found to rise to nearly three times the previous level.
As a result, the average selling price of Unitree humanoids fell 72%, from 593,400 yuan (about 118.95 million won) in 2023 to 166,400 yuan (about 33.36 million won) last year. In June, it further cut the price of the consumer product "R1" to 29,900 yuan (about 5.99 million won). Goldman Sachs said in a report last month that, in the medium to long term, the average price of humanoid finished goods is expected to fall about 49%, from $41,800 (about 56.21 million won) in 2025 to $21,300 (about 28.64 million won) in 2035.
However, price declines for robot hands are limited. In particular, high-degree-of-freedom tactile "precision robot hands" still cost from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of won, and in some cases the lifespan is only a few weeks to two to three months. The Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily said, "As robot prices fall, the burden of the cost of these high-priced components may actually grow."
◇ The key to major industry growth is not low prices but "work stability"
Some analysis also said that falling robot prices do not immediately lead to explosive market growth. The key variable for commercialization is not how much it costs to buy a robot, but how much it costs for a robot to finish one task.
Assuming there is humanoid A priced at 10 million won with a 95% task success rate and humanoid B priced at 13 million won with a 99% task success rate, A may seem to offer better price-to-performance given the mere 4 percentage point gap in success rates. But considering the additional expense incurred when A fails a task—requiring frequent human intervention and repeated attempts—B may ultimately deliver higher price-to-performance.
Accordingly, securing the "brain" technology of humanoids is expected to become more important. Lowering hardware prices to make robots purchasable is the realm of supply chains and manufacturing, but enabling stable operation at an expense lower than labor costs by actually deploying humanoids to tasks depends on artificial intelligence (AI) and data. An industry official said, "The supply chain is about making robots cheap, but what makes the market pay after mass production is the robot's brain."
The Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily predicted, "The industry views 2027–2028 as the period to verify whether standardized tasks can be stably performed in industrial and logistics settings," adding, "From 2028 to 2030, standardized commercial purchases could gain full momentum."