Saudi Arabia has been cornered as the Iran-backed Yemen Houthi rebels took control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key crude oil shipping lane in the Red Sea. Analysts say options are limited because a military response could reignite Yemen's civil war and escalate into a clash with Iran, while negotiations would mean largely accepting Houthi demands.
After recently seizing Mocha, a major port on the Red Sea coast, the Houthis took control of Perim Island in the middle of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Dhubab on the facing mainland. They also entered Greater Hanish Island and Lesser Hanish Island, leaving all remaining government-held areas on Yemen's Red Sea coast in Houthi hands.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a chokepoint connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, used by ships bound for Europe via the Suez Canal. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2023 crude oil and petroleum products transiting the Bab el-Mandeb averaged 9.3 million barrels per day, about 12% of global seaborne oil trade.
After the Iran war effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has rerouted crude to the Red Sea coast using its east–west pipeline. If the Houthis blockade the Bab el-Mandeb as well, Saudi Arabia will see both of its main crude export routes threatened.
Saudi crude supply has already fallen sharply. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Saudi Arabia's crude supply last month averaged 6 million barrels per day, down 2.3 million barrels from a month earlier. It was the smallest level in more than 30 years.
The Houthis say they will target only Saudi ships. Houthi Spokesperson Yahya Saree said, "All navigation except for Saudi ships is safe," adding, "We will respond to a blockade with a blockade and to escalation with escalation until attacks and the blockade against us stop."
In July, the Houthis claimed Saudi Arabia bombed Sana'a airport, which they control, declared the end of the 2022 truce, and have since attacked Saudi ships and oil facilities.
Saudi Arabia has struck back by bombing Mocha airport and Houthi strongholds in Yemen. Yemen government forces signaled an operation to retake Houthi-held areas along the Red Sea coast. Since fighting escalated last week, at least 500 people have been killed and about 46,000 displaced in Yemen, according to the U.N. International Organization for Migration (IOM).
But it will not be easy for Saudi Arabia to enter a full-scale war. If war with the Houthis drags on, it could not only reignite the Yemen civil war but also draw in Iran, which has been at war with the United States since February. Saudi Arabia could become a belligerent in the U.S.–Iran war.
Direct U.S. support is also unlikely. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke twice by phone on the 10th with U.S. President Donald Trump to request strikes on the Houthis but was reportedly rejected. Instead, the United States agreed to provide Saudi Arabia with intelligence and data on strike targets.
Negotiations are also a burdensome choice for Saudi Arabia. The Houthis said they will keep up pressure until Saudi Arabia lifts its travel and economic blockade on Yemen. CNN reported that if Saudi Arabia accepts this, it could be seen as effectively capitulating to Houthi demands.
Yemen expert Mohammed Al-Basha said, "All signs now point to a large-scale Saudi retaliation, and the likelihood is growing by the day."