Canada, which is engaged in a tariff war with the Donald Trump U.S. administration, appears to be moving away from its long-standing U.S.-centric economic and diplomatic ties to pursue cooperation with the European Union (EU) at the level of an associate member.
On the 12th (local time), the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) said Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada instructed government officials to draw up specific measures to strengthen ties with the EU without acceding to the bloc.
The WSJ said, "To reduce the pain of a divorce from the United States, Canada is accelerating its pivot to Europe," adding, "European leaders have half-jokingly begun calling Canada the EU's 'newest member.'"
From the outset of his tenure, Prime Minister Carney analyzed the cases of the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland, which are not EU members but maintain close ties to the European market through various agreements.
Over the past few months, Carney met in succession not only with leaders of France, Italy and Germany but also with heads of state and royalty from Europe's smaller countries. One of the main agenda items for both sides was how far Canada and the EU could deepen their relationship.
Carney also proposed to European leaders introducing a new designation that would define Canada as an "EU associate member." While the EU tends to be cautious about flexibly applying its membership rules, people on both sides were said to have responded positively to Carney's proposal.
Canada and the EU are discussing ways to strengthen supply chain cooperation in energy, artificial intelligence (AI) and defense, as well as in critical minerals needed for battery and semiconductor production. They are also exploring avenues for Canada to access the European market on terms close to those of an EU member state.
A senior Canadian official said, "Canadians speak like Americans and dress like Americans, but socially they are much more European," and predicted that strengthening ties with the EU would not be difficult.
However, there are many hurdles to clear for Carney's vision to lead to actual institutional integration.
Most nonmembers that trade freely with the EU contribute to the EU budget, accept European workers and comply with EU rules. If Canada accepts similar conditions, there could be backlash in Quebec and Alberta, where separatist sentiment is strong.
Even Carney, who is maintaining high approval ratings amid tensions with the United States, could face a political backlash once the impact of EU rules on Canadians' daily lives and on corporations becomes concrete.
Some also say the economic benefits may not be as large as expected. A U.S. official said, "At a time when the United States is scaling back its role as the 'consumer of last resort,' it is unclear whether Canada and the EU are prepared to buy enough of each other's goods."
Within the EU, there is also a view that is wary of Canada's intentions. EU officials are said to be watching to see whether Canada intends to use Europe to gain leverage in talks with the United States.
On the 16th, Carney is expected to lay out concrete plans to strengthen Canada–EU cooperation in a speech to the European Parliament. The WSJ said the two sides plan to announce the launch of working groups by sector at a subsequent summit.