As the Houthi, a pro-Iran armed faction in Yemen, has successively seized key points leading to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that connects the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal, some analysts say Iran's influence over the Middle East's main oil shipping lanes is growing again.
On the 10th (local time), Reuters, citing Yemen government officials, reported that after the Houthi captured the Red Sea port stronghold of Mocha, they also took control of the strategically vital Hanish Islands. Mocha is a strategic foothold about 70–80 km north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Houthi's capture of Mocha is meaningful in that it secured a bridgehead to move into the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Al Jazeera said, "Through Mocha, the Houthi will be able to greatly expand their influence over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area," adding, "Since Mocha Port and the road south of Mocha are major supply routes, the Houthi's capture of Mocha also means they can cut off the core supply lines of the forces opposing them."
Yemeni government forces and factions backed by Saudi Arabia are currently sending troops to the areas around Dhubab and Perim Island to build a defensive line. Perim Island sits in the middle of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and splits it into two channels. If the Houthi seize this area as well, their influence over ships passing through the strait could expand significantly. Yemen government officials said, "Seizing Dhubab and Perim Island is key to controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait."
Even if the Houthi do not completely control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the ripple effects on global shipping are expected to be significant. It has already been proven that even without physically blockading the strait, merely raising the risk of attacks on ships can prompt major shipping lines to reroute. In fact, after Houthi attacks continued from late 2023, major shipping companies such as Maersk, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd, as well as BP, avoided the Suez Canal route and detoured around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa.
Reuters said, "The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the world's most important routes for global maritime goods and materials transport and is essential for logistics bound from Asia to Europe via the Suez Canal," adding, "Even a partial closure of the strait can cause enormous damage."
In particular, with the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of the world's crude oil shipments pass—effectively closed, any disruption to passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is expected to have a significant impact on the global energy market. That is because Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, has heavily relied on exporting crude via the Red Sea since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As the Houthi offensive continues in the Red Sea, international oil prices have already topped $100 per barrel.
As the Houthi expand the front along the Red Sea coast, some analysts say Iran's regional influence is also growing. Iran has recently been on the defensive due to the U.S. maritime blockade and sweeping economic sanctions, but as the Houthi ramp up military pressure in the Red Sea, they have gained a new lever to use in negotiations with the United States and Saudi Arabia. Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the U.K. think tank Chatham House, told the New York Times (NYT) that the Houthi attacks "will plunge the United States and Saudi Arabia, and their allies, into greater trouble."
The Guardian in the U.K. also reported, "By taking more of the Red Sea coast south of Hodeidah Port, the Houthi rebels are seeking to create new leverage to pressure Saudi Arabia and the United States into agreeing to lift the U.S. blockade on Iranian tankers," adding, "The Houthi seizure of this coastal area and some islands would be a strategic disaster for Saudi Arabia and the United States."
There were also reports that Iran's support is behind the latest Houthi offensive. Reuters, citing sources from the Yemeni government and Iran on the day, reported that the Houthi received direct command from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as they advanced on the strategic port city of Mocha. Senior IRGC commander Abdolreza Shahlai was identified as the figure overseeing the operation, and Iran has reportedly promised the Houthi additional funding and weapons support while pressuring them to intensify attacks on Saudi Arabia.