Analysts say Iran could reverse-engineer and use it for its own weapons development after seizing a U.S. military unmanned underwater vehicle at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz. Fifteen years ago, Iran also claimed it reverse-engineered a captured U.S. stealth drone and unveiled a similar homegrown drone.
On the 9th, Reuters reported, citing experts, that Iran could analyze the U.S. military's autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), the Dive-LD, that it seized and reverse-engineer mechanical systems and more.
The Dive-LD is a large underwater drone developed by U.S. defense company Anduril. It is designed to perform underwater missions, including long-range surveillance, and can operate for days with little human intervention. Anduril has said the Dive-LD can operate for up to 10 days.
According to the U.S. Navy, the Dive-LD that Iran obtained malfunctioned during a mission and stopped at sea before being recovered by Iranian forces. Tim Hawkins, a Navy colonel and U.S. Central Command Spokesperson, said, "The drone did not collect sensitive data and is an older model without classified sonar (equipment that sends sound waves underwater and analyzes returning signals to detect the location or distance of submarines, ships, and underwater objects) or radar equipment."
The U.S. military is downplaying the impact of the drone falling into Iranian hands, but experts believe Iran could disassemble the Dive-LD, examine its internal hardware, and reverse-engineer its mechanical systems. That means it could be used to develop Iran's own underwater drones.
Brian Clark, senior fellow and director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at the Hudson Institute, said the Dive-LD's software has built-in safeguards, making it difficult for Iran to exploit. But he analyzed that the drone's mechanical systems, including its structure and drive method, "can certainly be reverse-engineered."
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said, "Iran will, of course, use this as an opportunity for propaganda," adding, "It could help the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) improve its own unmanned underwater vehicle designs."
Experts point to precedent as the backdrop for raising the possibility that Iran could reverse-engineer the underwater drone. In 2011, Iran secured the U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel stealth reconnaissance drone. Then-U.S. President Barack Obama publicly demanded the airframe's return from Iran. But Iran later claimed it had reverse-engineered the RQ-170 and unveiled a domestically produced drone that appeared to heavily copy the aircraft's design.
Since then, the United States has actively acted to prevent unmanned equipment from falling into Iranian hands. In 2022, when an Iranian Navy vessel tried to tow away a U.S.-operated unmanned surface vessel, the Saildrone, in the Gulf, the U.S. Navy deployed a patrol ship and MH-60S Seahawk helicopters.
Experts say Iran is unlikely to gain decisive military leverage from this single Dive-LD seizure. Still, with the United States gaining the upper hand in the war, simply getting hold of an adversary's underwater drone could provide Iran with propaganda value.
Iran is actively promoting the incident. Iranian embassies around the world have posted a series of social media posts mocking the United States for losing the unmanned underwater vehicle.
Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), analyzed that Iran has long skillfully used such incidents to highlight U.S. incompetence while showcasing its control over the Strait of Hormuz.