As the war with Iran that began on Feb. 28 has dragged on, voices inside Iran are calling for an end to the war. The United States has blocked Iran's crude oil exports and even shut down sanction-evasion channels, pushing Iran's economy to the brink.
According to major foreign media on the 8th local time, the United States since late last month has focused on economically isolating Iran through the so-called Operation Economic Outcast. In addition to a maritime blockade of Iranian vessels, it has tightened secondary sanctions targeting third-country corporations and financial institutions that have a transaction with Iran, moving to shut down Iran's oil smuggling at the source.
After U.S. pressure, Iran's crude exports, a key funding source for the regime, have fallen sharply. According to Kpler, a crude shipping data firm, Iran's crude loadings plunged from about 1.7 million barrels per day last year to about 260,000 barrels this month. Reuters said that at present only a very small portion of volumes leaving terminals is being moved via trucks, trains, or small vessels through the Caspian Sea. Iran's government also said total trade volume fell 25%–35%.
With crude exports blocked, Iran's economy is being pushed into crisis. The value of the rial has fallen from about 1 million rials per dollar a year ago to more than 2.2 million rials recently, and the 12-month average inflation rate has reached 69.9%. Although Iran is a major oil producer, it lacks refining capacity and imports some gasoline. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that current gasoline inventories amount to only about two months' worth.
As comprehensive U.S. pressure has intensified economic pain, calls for ending the war are growing inside and outside the Iranian regime. Former President Hassan Rouhani on the 7th proposed putting the decision on whether to continue the war to a referendum. He argued that "the people's demand is an honorable end to the war," and said the public should be asked whether to continue it. Former President Mohammad Khatami also said last month, "If we miss the opportunity created by the memorandum of understanding (MOU) for ending the war, we will face enormous problems," urging a return to the MOU.
President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are also emphasizing the need to resume talks with the United States and to restore the economy. Ali Ansari, a professor at the University of St Andrews, said, "Iran is facing very severe economic pressure and is also losing control over the strait," adding, "In the end, the question is whether they will choose negotiations, and I think they should negotiate."
Even in this situation, the United States is tightening the reins by increasing military pressure. U.S. Central Command said on the 5th that it struck three Iranian crude carriers in response to an attack by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on a U.S. Navy vessel. On the 8th, it carried out an airstrike near Kharg Island in Gulf waters, Iran's "crude export hub." Having blocked the movement of Iran-related vessels through a maritime blockade, the United States has raised the pressure another notch by directly striking tankers and areas around crude export nodes.
However, Iranian hard-liners are still maintaining a stance of not yielding to U.S. pressure. A senior Iranian official earlier told Reuters that Iran hopes inflation concerns ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November will undercut the U.S. administration's will to continue the war.
Attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran, on Saudi Arabia are also pressuring the United States. The Houthis have recently expanded attacks on Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. ally in the Middle East. While Iran pressures the United States and Gulf states in the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis are increasing military threats in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula.
Hisham Al-Omeisy, a senior Yemen adviser at the European Institute of Peace (EIP), told Al Jazeera, "With Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis are trying to control strategic points on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula," adding, "In particular, the Houthis began attacking Saudi Arabia for nearly a month and are now even escalating the level of attacks, which clearly means this is not just a domestic issue in Yemen."