Andy Burnham, the United Kingdom's new prime minister, decided to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank. The plan aims to win back the Labor Party base by taking a tougher anti-Israel stance than the previous government, but it raises the likelihood of clashes with U.S. President Donald Trump, who is pro-Israel, early in his term.
On the 7th (local time), according to Bloomberg and the British daily the Guardian, U.K. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband will on the 8th unveil measures to comprehensively reset relations between the United Kingdom and Israel. The package is expected to include a ban on transactions for goods and some services produced in illegal settlements in the West Bank, and a reaffirmation of support for Palestinian rights and the "two-state solution."
The sanctions target only West Bank settlements, not Israel as a whole. In addition to goods, some services such as finance and advertising for the settlements are also expected to be included in the ban. Investment restrictions on settlements, previously recommendations, will become legal obligations.
The British government is concerned about pushback from the Trump administration. According to Bloomberg, British diplomats told the U.S. side that the move is a symbolic step aimed only at the settlements. They said it would not have a material impact on overall U.K.-Israel trade and security ties.
On the 7th, the day before the sanctions release, Prime Minister Burnham held a phone call with President Trump and discussed the "two-state solution," under which Israel and Palestine would coexist as independent countries. Bloomberg analyzed that Burnham may have flagged the sanctions plan during the call.
The direct trigger for the U.K.'s hard-line response is Israel's settlement expansion plan. The Israeli government recently launched a tender process to build 1,200 settlement dwellings in the West Bank. If the "E1 settlement project," planned east of Jerusalem, proceeds as scheduled, the West Bank could be effectively split in two starting in Nov. Establishing an independent Palestinian state would become even more difficult.
Burnham issued a joint statement with leaders of five countries—Canada, France, Germany and Italy—criticizing the settlement construction plan as "unacceptable." He also urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to withdraw the tender plan.
The British government also reviewed adding individuals or groups that blocked humanitarian aid into Gaza to its existing human rights sanctions list. It also examined formally supporting the International Court of Justice (ICJ)'s 2024 advisory opinion that Israel's occupation of Palestinian territory is illegal.
However, the announcement is not expected to include sanctions related to restrictions on bringing in humanitarian aid. It is also unlikely to label what happened in Gaza as "genocide."
British public opinion is favorable toward settlement sanctions. In an Opinium poll, 46% supported banning trade with Israeli settlements and their goods, more than double the 18% opposed. Excluding respondents who did not state an opinion, support approached 75%.
Burnham has made clear he will respond to Israel more firmly than his predecessor, Keir Starmer. While former Prime Minister Starmer formally recognized Palestine as a state during his tenure, he drew backlash from the Labor Party's left for not urging Prime Minister Netanyahu to halt the Gaza military operation early in his administration. Support for the Labor Party fell, and the Green Party Korea gained ground in various elections.
Returning to Parliament last month, Burnham ousted former Prime Minister Starmer and took office, apologizing for the previous government's response to Gaza. He acknowledged that the Labor Party "did not handle the Israel issue properly."
Pushback from Israel and the United States appears to have already begun. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee claimed the Labor Party government is gripped by anti-Semitism. Netanyahu's eldest son, Yair, asserted that the Falkland Islands are Argentine, not British, territory.
President Trump also said he would not support the United Kingdom even if Argentina invades the Falkland Islands. He cited the reason that when the United States and Israel went to war with Iran in Feb., the U.K. did not help him.