Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) swept the state parliament election in Saxony-Anhalt, a former East German region, with a vote share of more than 40%. However, it is expected to fall short of an absolute majority, leaving it unclear whether it can lead a state government for the first time since its founding.
According to the Saxony-Anhalt state election commission on the 6th (local time), with 95% of ballots counted as of 11:10 p.m., AfD's vote share stood at 44.6%. It firmly secured first place, far ahead of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU, 16.9%). The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) recorded 9.1%, the Greens 8.9%, and the Left 8.4%.
AfD's vote share is more than double the 20.8% it won in the 2021 Saxony-Anhalt state election. Taken together with state and federal contests, it is the highest share since the party was founded in 2013.
Ulrich Siegmund, AfD's candidate for Saxony-Anhalt minister-president, said they "made history," adding the result is "also a signal to Berlin."
However, AfD is unlikely to form a State Governments on its own. Public broadcaster ARD, citing exit polls and interim counts, projected AfD would take 39 of the 83 seats, short of a majority. Final seat totals and party allocations could change depending on the count.
That leaves the radical-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) holding the key to a coalition. While Germany's major parties, including the CDU, adhere to a so-called "firewall" against working with the far right, BSW has left the door open to cooperation with AfD.
If BSW surpasses the 5% vote threshold for seat allocation and enters the state parliament, AfD and BSW together could secure a majority. As of 11:10 p.m., BSW's vote share was 5.2%.
BSW, seen as a successor to the former East German communist party, holds positions similar to AfD on hard-line immigration policy and a pro-Russia stance. It is also negative toward the "firewall" principle touted by other parties.
Still, it is uncertain whether the two parties, which are diametrically opposed ideologically, would actually form a coalition. AfD co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla have been open to coalition talks, but candidate Siegmund has said they would take office only if they can form a single-party government. The party leadership and the minister-president candidate are at odds.
BSW co-leader Amira Mohamed Ali proposed electing a "nonpartisan" figure as minister-president instead of candidate Siegmund. Siegmund said that if coalition talks collapse and a government cannot be formed, a new election may be held.
In this election, AfD campaigned on deporting undocumented migrants, imposing work requirements on asylum seekers, and cutting support for Ukrainian refugees. It also vowed to strengthen patriotic education, including flying the German flag, and to reduce funding for public broadcasting. It proposed measures criticized as potentially unconstitutional, such as creating a "voluntary citizen patrol" for public safety and separating students from refugee families into different classes.
At 35, candidate Siegmund has emerged as a key AfD figure by spearheading the party's surge in this race. AfD is also leading in national party support. Once a member of the CDU, he has drawn youth support through social media and is seen as winning over older voters with a neat and friendly image. Within AfD, he is called "everyone's darling" and "the type mothers-in-law love."
There are controversies over his past. In 2023, Siegmund attended a meeting of German-speaking far-right figures that discussed mass deportations of immigrants, which sparked debate over dissolving AfD. His staff also faced scrutiny over past involvement with a neo-Nazi group that the Constitutional Court banned from operating. The weekly Der Spiegel described Siegmund as "the most dangerous man in Germany."
Saxony-Anhalt has a population of 2.12 million and 1.69 million eligible voters, the sixth-smallest population among Germany's 16 states. AfD has been strong in former East German regions, including Saxony-Anhalt, where economic conditions are weaker than in the west and the proportion of immigrants is lower.
Since its founding in 2013, AfD, which calls for tighter immigration controls and emphasizes German national identity, has produced mayors in some small municipalities but has never led a State Governments. This election drew attention because it raised the prospect that, for the first time in more than 80 years since the Nazis' defeat, a far-right-leaning local government could take office in Germany.
The preliminary turnout was 74.5%, the highest among Saxony-Anhalt state elections held since German reunification. Turnout in the 2021 election was 60.3%. On the 20th, a state parliament election will also be held in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, another former East German region where AfD support is nearing 40%.