As the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) sparked a storm in local elections, assessments say German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces a dilemma over whether to stick to the principle of excluding AfD or to leave the door open to political cooperation.
On the 6th (local time), German public broadcaster ARD predicted that AfD would take first place with 44.5% of the vote in the Saxony-Anhalt state parliamentary election held that day. This is more than double the vote share (20.8%) in the previous election held about five years ago. AfD is expected to secure 39 of the state parliament's 83 seats, falling short of a majority, but it has effectively established itself as the undisputed largest party in Saxony-Anhalt. By contrast, the centrist-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Merz was projected to win just 18.5%.
Merz, who has long upheld the so-called "firewall (Brandmauer)" principle of "absolutely no cooperation with far-right forces," is in a bind after AfD's strong showing. Major German parties have refused cooperation with AfD, classified as a far-right party, and the CDU has ruled out even indirect cooperation with AfD. Merz also pledged during the 2018 party leadership race to cut AfD's support in half.
However, this election has prompted criticism that Merz's firewall principle has instead fueled AfD's expansion. Voters seeking more conservative politics have shifted to AfD, and as the CDU excluded cooperation with AfD, it was forced to join hands with parties distant from its own policy line, deepening political gridlock. The Financial Times (FT) reported, "Critics say the firewall not only fails to prevent an outflow of support to the far right, it actually encourages it."
There are also signs of cracks forming in the firewall. The small far-left party the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) argues that voters rejected the firewall in this election and is calling for the principle to be scrapped. Within the CDU, as the Saxony-Anhalt vote share fell short of even half of AfD's, voices are emerging that the relationship with AfD needs rerouting.
As a result, two practical options lie before Merz. One is to stick to the firewall principle and have the CDU join with the Green Party Korea, the The Social Democratic Party of Korea (SPD), former communist-aligned forces, and far-left populists to push for an "anti-AfD" State Governments coalition. The other is to give Saxony-Anhalt's CDU the discretion to decide its relationship with AfD autonomously. In the latter case, it could effectively open a path for AfD to form the State Governments.
The problem is that Merz will find it hard to avoid political damage whichever path he takes. If he sticks to the firewall, he could face backlash from regional CDU forces who argue the possibility of cooperation with AfD should be left open. Conversely, if he allows cooperation with AfD, it could trigger a fierce backlash not only from internal opponents but also from SPD, the federal government's coalition partner.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) in the United States said, "Merz's standing within the party has already weakened, as he is recording the worst approval ratings among postwar German chancellors," adding, "Because the centrist-left The Social Democratic Party of Korea, the coalition partner, has been adamantly opposed to any form of cooperation with AfD, allowing the state CDU to set its relationship with AfD autonomously is highly likely to lead to the end of the federal coalition government led by Merz."
Given that AfD's policies are radical, it will be difficult for Merz to easily tear down the firewall. AfD is considered one of the most radical among the nationalist parties that have grown in Western Europe in recent years. Accelerating deportations of undocumented immigrants, expanding welfare benefits for German-born nationals, ending sanctions against Russia and Germany's support for Ukraine, and Germany's withdrawal from the European Union (EU) are among AfD's signature policies.
Suda David-Wilp, vice president and senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund (GMF), a U.S. think tank, said, "The firewall is the policy that symbolizes Friedrich Merz," adding, "This is a fundamental question of what it means to be a conservative in Germany. Whether it is support for Russia or hostility to Europe, much of what AfD stands for runs counter to German conservatism."
Some also view the election result as a judgment on Merz and the federal government. Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research, said in an interview with Reuters, "Above all, this election result is a vote of no confidence in the federal government." FT reported, "If the CDU suffers a crushing defeat in other local elections this month, calls for a leadership change are likely to intensify."