Top officials in the U.S. Donald Trump administration are sending mixed messages about the threat Russia poses to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director visited Moscow, Russia, in secret to warn against escalation of the war in Ukraine and urged compromise, while the U.S. ambassador to NATO warned of Russian President Vladimir Putin's unpredictability and pressed allies to be fully prepared militarily. As the head of America's top intelligence agency and the U.S. ambassador posted to the front line of European security take divergent approaches, they are adding confusion to the international community's response to Russia.
On the 2nd (local time), according to a roundup of major foreign media reports including Bloomberg and The Hill, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker showed contrasting views on the security threat Russia poses to Europe. In a media interview that day at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, Whitaker said, "We cannot predict what Vladimir Putin or other hostile actors will do."
Ambassador Whitaker urged NATO member countries to increase defense spending and weapons production, saying, "All we can do is prepare and deter so that Russia's moves don't add up." Whitaker said, "We prepare every day so that such a thing (a Russian invasion of NATO) does not happen, and so that we can respond if it does," and emphasized, "We must not forget, and we must look at it coldly, that our enemy invaded Ukraine."
The 32 NATO member countries already agreed at a summit in The Hague, Netherlands, in June last year to spend 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense by 2035 in preparation for the recent rise in geopolitical crises. Of that, 3.5% is to be executed as pure military spending such as tanks and missiles, and the remaining 1.5% is to be filled with infrastructure such as military roads and ports and cyber defense. NATO's goal set at the 2014 Wales summit was 2% of GDP, but in 11 years the benchmark has more than doubled. Last year, Korea spent 2.32% of GDP on defense. Whitaker brought up the 5% target again in the interview, saying, "We must train, prepare and invest in the military the way we would handle important business."
Ratcliffe, the U.S. intelligence chief, took a markedly different tack. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Ratcliffe paid a secret visit to Moscow, Russia, on the 25th of last month and warned against attacking NATO countries. On the 26th, President Trump downplayed the tension by calling Ratcliffe's visit "semi-routine" when asked about it in an interview with conservative talk show host Glenn Beck. He added, "John Ratcliffe is the CIA director, and he didn't go to Russia for the things you're thinking of." Asked whether President Putin would test NATO's resolve, Trump said flatly, "Putin will not attack a NATO member."
In contrast to the confusion inside the U.S. administration, Russia is ratcheting up its hybrid attacks on Europe. Hybrid attacks refer to a comprehensive security threat strategy that mobilizes not only conventional weapons but also nonmilitary and tangible and intangible means such as cyberattacks, destruction of key infrastructure, fake news, and economic sanctions. On the 1st, European Union (EU) Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called last month's attempted drone terror attack at Germany's Leipzig airport "an attack carried out by Russian operatives using military-grade materials on EU territory" and "a new escalation." EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas also labeled the incident "state-sponsored terrorism" with Russia behind it.
The European Union (EU) is currently tightening sanctions on Russia and preparing a 22nd additional sanctions package targeting more than 1,600 corporations. Separately, it has reopened discussions on using frozen Russian assets. Since 2022, the EU has sought to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine, which has been at war with Russia for a fifth year, but use was derailed by staunch opposition from Belgium. Belgium is home to Euroclear, the EU central securities depository where most frozen Russian assets are held. The Belgian government believes that touching the frozen assets of the Russian Central Bank deposited in the country is likely to trigger legal action from Russia. It appears concerned that Belgium could be left solely responsible for repayment or face military retaliation from Russia.
Sergei Markov, former Russian foreign policy adviser, said, "The EU is in effect attacking Russia even now through measures like sanctions on Western ships and oil," adding, "Russia has no choice but to respond." He said, "The most realistic scenario is to blockade the Baltic Sea straits." This is interpreted to mean that, in response to Western sanctions and asset freezes, Russia could be willing to risk military clashes near the three Baltic NATO allies (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania).