Former U.S. officials predicted that U.S. President Donald Trump could first meet North Korea's State Affairs Commission Chairperson Kim Jong-un to break the ice for talks, then follow up with a second U.S.-North Korea summit after the midterm elections in November.
Anthony Ruggiero, who served as Director General for North Korea at the White House National Security Council (NSC) during Trump's first-term administration, appeared on a PBS interview show on the 30th (local time) and said, "President Trump seems likely to just meet Kim Jong-un to start the conversation."
Ruggiero, the former Director General, went on to predict that a second U.S.-North Korea summit could be held after the early November midterm elections or next year. He said Trump could meet the Chairperson before the midterms to start talks and then move on to a follow-up summit.
He argued that it is necessary to tacitly acknowledge the reality that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons. On that premise, he said, negotiations could focus on issues the United States considers more important, such as the withdrawal of North Korean troops from Ukraine.
Ruggiero, the former Director General, said that while he had previously focused on North Korea's denuclearization, he recently shifted to acknowledging the reality of the North's possession of nuclear weapons.
He said, "What the president and the staff need to wrestle with is whether they can extract an agreement with North Korea that has practical effect, and whether they can manage the countries that would see it as a green light for their own nuclear armament," adding, "We believe we have enough incentives and deterrents to prevent that."
He did not directly name the countries that would take it as a signal to arm themselves with nuclear weapons, but it is interpreted as referring to Korea and Japan.
Ruggiero, the former Director General, also touched on Trump's order to scale back the U.S.-South Korea joint exercises. He said, "The only thing that surprised me was that President Trump didn't do that last year," adding, "President Trump has a strong view on it."
On the other hand, some argued that North Korea's status as a nuclear-armed state should not be officially recognized in negotiations with the North.
Rachel Minyoung Lee, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, a U.S. think tank, advised that simply restarting working-level talks—such as resuming the "New York channel" between the United States and North Korea—could be a significant achievement, and that it is necessary to maintain strategic ambiguity.
She said, "We (the United States) don't need to tell North Korea 'we recognize you as a nuclear-armed state,'" adding, "There's no reason to do that while giving up all the leverage we have."
Senior Fellow Lee assessed that the Chairperson has improved relations with Russia and China, and that President Trump is also reaching out to North Korea. She added, "From Kim Jong-un's perspective, he holds a lot of leverage and will see himself as being in an exceptionally advantageous position."
Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the Mansfield Foundation, a U.S. think tank, warned that while President Trump may want a major deal he can tout as an achievement, North Korea could employ a "salami tactic" of slicing up demands and rewards.
Klingner said, "North Korea will want compensation just for coming to the table and will keep asking for more."
He also pointed out the possibility that, with virtually no aides around Trump to offer frank advice, an agreement could emerge that does not align with U.S. national interests. He emphasized that even if it takes time, the conventional bottom-up approach—first sorting out the agenda at the working level and then moving to a leaders' meeting—is more desirable.