The net monthly decrease in Russian troop numbers invading Ukraine is estimated to have reached 6,000 in the past month. Although more than 1,000 new troops are being recruited each day, some analysts said recent casualties have surged so sharply that Russia is failing to make up for its manpower losses.
The Guardian reported on the 28th, citing Western officials, that Russia is newly recruiting more than 1,000 troops a day to send to the front.
However, the Guardian analyzed that casualties have surged over the past two months, reaching a level where it is difficult to cover manpower losses even with new recruits.
A Western official told the Guardian, "The gap between Russia's current number of new recruits and the scale of casualties is estimated to be 6,000 a month."
The official added, "Because of this situation, Russian President Vladimir Putin is intensifying offensives that target Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and civilians."
Recently, Russia has been systematically destroying Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The Guardian said Russia is pursuing this strategy because the massive loss of manpower is difficult to replace even with additional conscription.
Western officials also believe that if Russia again carries out large-scale conscription, the political and economic burden will be considerable. In the fall of 2022, the first year of the war, when the mobilization order was issued, about 1 million people fled abroad, and more than half of them are estimated not to have returned. Since most of them are highly skilled workers, prolonged departures will inevitably hurt the economy.
The Guardian noted that even if Russia conscripts hundreds of thousands more, it will be difficult to train and deploy large numbers of new troops to the front with only its current stock of military equipment and officer corps.
For these reasons, Russia is also ramping up threats against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to weaken Western support for Ukraine.
It is attempting to erode alliance unity and reduce support for Ukraine by launching cyberattacks aimed at NATO or striking civilian facilities.
A Western official said this is "to create a divided and vulnerable Europe," while another official said, "Russia has repeatedly raised the possibility of using nuclear weapons to frighten us into halting support for Ukraine."
Still, Western officials predicted that although Russia is ratcheting up threats, it will avoid a direct confrontation with NATO.