Russia is reportedly reviewing an additional mobilization order to secure new troops to deploy to the battlefield in Ukraine to resolve a troop shortage. As anxiety grows over the possibility that an actual mobilization order will be issued, not only are men of conscription age moving to flee abroad, but real estate prices in countries bordering Russia are also stirring.
On the 23rd (local time), the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Russian military authorities inspected preparation plans and procedures in case local residents are mobilized by visiting Kaliningrad, the exclave wedged between Poland and Lithuania, last month. Additional mobilization plans to cope with the troop shortage are also reportedly under review nationwide.
It remains undecided whether Russian authorities will actually issue a mobilization order. The WSJ projected that, with national elections coming in September, the likelihood of a large-scale mobilization at least before the vote is low. That is because the political fallout of a mobilization cannot be ignored.
However, as Russia's troop shortage has recently worsened and President Vladimir Putin has not backed down from his resolve to seize Donbas, some say an additional mobilization order is ultimately unavoidable. In September 2022, as the tide of battle turned unfavorable, Russia issued a partial mobilization targeting 300,000 reservists, and at the time, hundreds of thousands of men seeking to evade the draft left the country.
As rumors spread that a large-scale mobilization order is imminent, similar movements are already appearing inside Russia. According to the WSJ, men of conscription age are looking for ways to flee abroad. In Georgia, which borders Russia, and in Armenia, real estate prices have risen on expectations that large numbers of Russian immigrants could flow in. Moscow customs authorities said that last week the number of people crossing the Georgian border in a day exceeded 20,000, a record high.
If a large-scale mobilization becomes a reality this time, it is expected to help Russia reinforce the front lines and accelerate its push to seize Donbas. However, questions are being raised about whether it would have a tangible effect if the order is issued ahead of winter, when combat inevitably slows.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, "It is already late this year, so this step will not have a decisive effect," while adding, "It could be a factor in next year's fighting."
The economic burden is also expected to be heavy. Russia is already experiencing a labor shortage due to the prolonged war, and if more of the working-age population is sent to the battlefield, the labor crunch in the civilian institutional sector will inevitably worsen. The fiscal burden for the pay, food, and equipment of newly mobilized troops is also large.
Alexander Kolyandr, a director at the consulting firm Eurasia Group, warned that "Russia is pawning its future for military gains," saying that mobilizing additional troops could put enormous pressure on the Russian economy and the government budget.