A drop in catches in Hokkaido, Japan's largest seafood-producing region, is shaking restaurants and the processing industry across the board. As prices of sea urchin, salmon, and scallops soar, the ingredients in seafood rice bowls are changing, and processing companies that cannot withstand shortages of materials and supplies and rising procurement costs are closing one after another.
According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun on the 23rd (local time), seafood rice bowls (kaisen-don) at Sapporo's Nijo Market, a popular spot for tourists, have recently been featuring tuna, yellowtail, and horse mackerel—ingredients that were not common in the past—more frequently.
A restaurant owner said, "In terms of both price and supply, the only truly stable ingredient is tuna," adding, "It is getting harder and harder to source the ingredients traditionally used."
The change in kaisen-don ingredients stems from shrinking catches and surging prices of Hokkaido seafood. With sea surface temperatures rising and currents and feeding environments shifting, production of key species such as salmon, scallops, and sea urchin has become unstable.
From 2020 to 2025, Hokkaido's scallop and sea urchin catches each fell by about 20%. Shrimp plunged about 40%, and salmon about 70%. For scallops, higher water temperatures led to poor growth and more die-offs, while for sea urchin, the decline in the seaweed they feed on has produced cases of reduced marketability.
The decline in catches has fed into higher prices. According to data Hokkaido released last month, prices for sea urchin, horsehair crab, salmon roe, and scallops all rose in unison from 2020 to 2025.
Last year, the average price of scallops was 395 yen per kilogram (about 3,400 won), more than triple the 2020 level. Shrimp and salmon prices also more than doubled, while sea urchin rose about 90% and horsehair crab and squid about 40%.
This year, supply-demand conditions appear set to worsen. A research institute in Hokkaido projected that this fall's salmon catch will drop to half of last year's already weak level. Scallop output is also expected to decrease further.
Although catches fell, higher prices pushed total catch value up. Last year, Hokkaido's catch volume was 913,000 tons, down 15% from a year earlier, but the catch value rose 13% to 323 billion yen (about 2.8184 trillion won). It was the largest in about 30 years. Growing overseas demand for Japanese seafood also lifted prices.
But conditions differ for processors that clean and turn seafood into products. They are shouldering the expense burden because it is hard to fully pass the rise in materials and supplies costs on to product prices.
Scallops must be shucked and salmon filleted. Salmon roe must be marinated in soy sauce or salt to be supplied to restaurants and households nationwide, making the role of processors essential in seafood distribution.
Hokkaido is Japan's largest seafood processing hub, but processing facilities have been declining in recent years. Companies unable to withstand shortages of materials and supplies and surging procurement costs have been exiting one after another. Given the industry's need for specialized skills and large-scale capital investment, even when incumbents disappear, new entrants find it hard to fill the gap quickly.
Sasaya Tsuyoshi, head of Marusa Sasaya Shoten, a seafood processor in Kushiro, Hokkaido, said, "The structure is shifting so that processors are the ones absorbing the rise in seafood prices," adding, "If the industry keeps weakening, we won't even be able to attempt new moves like capital investment."