U.S. President Donald Trump is sending one love call after another to Kim Jong-un, the North Korean Chairperson of the State Affairs Commission. Analysts say his moves are driven by intertwined diplomatic, security, and economic interests: claiming a diplomatic achievement with a U.S.-North Korea summit, prying North Korea away from China and Russia, and pressuring South Korea at the same time.
On the 20th, North Korea fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea from around Pyongyang. After saying that a mere scaling back of the South Korea-U.S. combined exercise could not be seen as a change in U.S. hostile policy toward the North, it moved to a show of force.
In a statement that day, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, which oversees the Indo-Pacific region, said it recognized North Korea's missile launches and was consulting closely with allies and partners, while assessing that "they do not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory, or to allies."
North Korea's latest show of force came as President Trump kept extending an offer of talks to the Chairperson Kim.
Meeting reporters the day before, President Trump said, "I know Kim Jong-un well," and added, "I will meet him this year." Earlier, he criticized the South Korea-U.S. combined exercise Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) as "inappropriate and hostile" and instructed the Ministry of National Defense to scale it down. Trump also claimed that his relationship with the Chairperson Kim had made the Korean Peninsula "much safer."
◇ No clear results despite successive wars… "Show off diplomatic achievements with a U.S.-North Korea summit"
The first reason cited for President Trump's emphasis on dialogue despite North Korea's show of force is diplomatic gains. Al Jazeera analyzed that with the Iran war not over and his pledge to end the Ukraine war unfulfilled, a meeting with the Chairperson Kim itself—regardless of outcome—could be leveraged as Trump's diplomatic achievement.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S. think tank, projected that if the Singapore joint statement is reaffirmed or an end-of-war declaration emerges from a U.S.-North Korea summit, even the Nobel Peace Prize could be mentioned. For President Trump, who has openly expressed expectations for the Nobel Peace Prize, a U.S.-North Korea summit could be an opportunity to flaunt a personal diplomatic accomplishment.
In this regard, some observers say that as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz enters a settling phase, Trump may be slowly shifting his attention toward North Korea. On the 19th, the U.S. online outlet Axios, citing U.S. officials, reported that "in recent weeks, the U.S. military has been secretly conducting an operation to establish a maritime corridor that passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily to transport millions of barrels of crude oil."
◇ The U.S. tied down in the Middle East… Aiming to avert a Northeast Asia crisis and to split North Korea, China, and Russia
The second reason is a security calculation to prevent an additional crisis in Northeast Asia while U.S. forces are concentrated in the Middle East, and to weaken the cohesion among North Korea, China, and Russia. Eugene Park, a University of Nevada professor, told Al Jazeera, "The United States has a clear reason to prevent another significant crisis from erupting outside the Middle East."
What the United States fears most is heightened tension in Northeast Asia over Taiwan. Some U.S. research institutions have warned that the Chinese military could have the capability to invade Taiwan by 2027. As of March this year, however, U.S. intelligence assessed that China's leadership is not planning a 2027 invasion and has no fixed timetable for unification, but that does not mean tensions over the Taiwan Strait have been fully resolved.
China has not renounced the possible use of force and continues military drills and pressure around Taiwan. The situation inside China has also changed. Early this year, President Xi Jinping carried out a purge of the military leadership, including Central Military Commission Vice Chair Zhang Youxia, citing bribery allegations nominally, removing military figures who opposed an invasion of Taiwan. On top of that, China's recent economic slowdown has increased internal uncertainty.
In this situation, U.S.-North Korea dialogue could be a card that shakes North Korea-China-Russia relations. The Brookings Institution analyzed that as North Korea supplied troops and ammunition to Russia and received military and economic support, ties between the two countries have significantly strengthened. Meanwhile, China, which had kept North Korea within its sphere of influence, moved to restore ties with Pyongyang to avoid ceding influence over North Korea to Russia.
The fact that North Korea is not in a relationship of total dependence on China and Russia is also a point the United States can exploit. Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in his 2023 memoir "Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love," claimed that when he visited Pyongyang in March 2018, the Chairperson Kim said in effect that U.S. Forces Korea were necessary to keep China in check. The argument is that if U.S. Forces Korea disappear, China would absorb North Korea and run the Korean Peninsula like its Xinjiang and Uyghur regions.
Perhaps mindful of this delicate North Korea-China relationship, President Trump in his first term also sought to meet one-on-one with the Chairperson Kim to settle issues such as denuclearization. However, despite three meetings with Kim Jong-un at the time, they failed to narrow differences over denuclearization and sanctions relief. Ha Yong-chul, head of the University of Washington Korea Studies Center, said, "President Trump appears to believe the talks failed then due to constraints from internal hard-liners such as National Security Adviser John Bolton, and in a second term he may try to clinch a direct transaction with the Chairperson Kim."
◇ "South Korea will not support the Iran war"… Also a signal to pressure investment in the U.S.
Third, Trump's conciliatory approach toward North Korea is also interpreted as a means to pressure South Korea. Trump cited South Korea's failure to support the Iran war and said, "We cannot continue to protect countries that do not help us." He has also expressed displeasure at delays in South Korea's fulfillment of its investment pledges in the United States.
Ha told Al Jazeera that Trump may be trying to pressure South Korea over support for the Iran war and investment in the United States, calling it "reciprocal diplomacy." Rachel Min-young Lee, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, also said scaling back combined drills could be a lever to accelerate South Korea's investment in the U.S. and lay the groundwork for higher defense cost-sharing.
Meanwhile, the South Korean government has shown embarrassment at Trump's abrupt decision while refraining from public assessments.
Minister Cho Hyun of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said at the National Assembly's Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee on the 19th that regarding the order to scale down the South Korea-U.S. combined exercises, "Neither our government nor U.S. government officials had any prior knowledge," adding that the government learned of the matter through President Trump's social media.
She also described the potential push for a U.S.-North Korea summit as "an opportunity to shift into a new phase," and said that while Seoul had asked Washington about the specific status of U.S.-North Korea contacts, it had yet to receive a reply. Regarding concerns about U.S.-North Korea talks that exclude South Korea, she said, "We are doing our best to ensure the South Korea-U.S. alliance is not weakened."