Amid a scaled-down South Korea-U.S. joint exercise, concerns have been raised that a security vacuum in the Pacific is becoming a reality as a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier that had been deployed in the Pacific moves to the Middle East. Even if an armed clash does not break out immediately, observers noted that as China moves to expand its influence in the Pacific, regional allies cannot help but grow more doubtful about U.S. security commitments.

The USS Abraham Lincoln. /Courtesy of Yonhap News

On the 18th (local time), the U.S. military outlet the War Zone said the U.S. Navy's George Washington carrier strike group (CSG), which had been deployed in the Pacific, passed through the Singapore Strait on the 13th and is heading to the Middle East. It is to relieve the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, which is carrying out maritime missions in the Middle East.

The George Washington is a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered carrier homeported at the Yokosuka base in Japan. It has been permanently deployed in Japan since 2008. With the U.S. decision to transfer the George Washington to the Middle East, there are now no U.S. carriers in the Pacific. A similar gap occurred in Aug. 2024 due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, but before that, a "Pacific without a U.S. carrier" had never become reality. In particular, as U.S.-China rivalry intensifies, some raised the possibility that China could use this to expand its influence in the Pacific.

The U.S. outlet Axios noted that as President Trump scales down the South Korea-U.S. joint exercise with a resumption of U.S.-North Korea talks in mind and prepares for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping next month, the absence of a carrier on top of that could strengthen China's claim that U.S. security commitments are not reliable. In particular, as the war with Iran drags on and the George Washington's Middle East deployment becomes prolonged, it cannot be ruled out that the lack of a U.S. carrier in the Pacific could continue for months.

Brian Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said, "Taiwan, the Philippines and Japan will end up watching China flex its military capabilities in a situation without the United States, and if this pattern continues, they will question whether the United States would actually step in to help in a crisis," adding, "If China persuades neighboring countries that 'the United States won't protect you,' China doesn't even need to go to war."

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) also said in an editorial the same day that President Trump's order to scale down the South Korea-U.S. joint exercise will further cement perceptions in Asia and Europe that "the United States is becoming an unreliable ally." The WSJ said this could amplify calls in South Korea for its own nuclear armament and assessed that doubts about U.S. security capabilities are spreading in the international community. It added that China welcomes the George Washington's move to the Middle East and is telling neighboring countries they cannot rely on U.S. defense.

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