As U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a drastic reduction of the South Korea-U.S. combined military exercises, the Japanese government is on high alert, worried about cracks in the South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation framework and a weakening of deterrence against North Korea.
A senior official at Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, immediately after Trump announced the downsizing of the South Korea-U.S. drills on the 16th (local time), said, "The solidarity of South Korea, the United States, and Japan will not waver," but also voiced concern, saying, "At a time when North Korea is advancing its nuclear and missile technology and deepening military cooperation with Russia, we must not weaken our posture to respond to threats."
The Japanese government says it hopes this measure will not lead to a fundamental shift in the United States' deterrence strategy against North Korea, but it cannot hide its dismay as the Trump second-term administration's unilateral security stance becomes a reality.
Earlier, Trump said on social media that he had ordered the Ministry of National Defense to scale back the South Korea-U.S. combined exercises, citing the training expense burden and Korea's refusal to join measures against Iran. He also emphasized his rapport with Kim Jong-un, chairman of North Korea's State Affairs Commission, arguing that the drills send "a completely inappropriate and hostile signal" to North Korea.
Local outlets including the Nikkei and Kyodo News analyzed that Trump floated the downsizing of the drills as an incentive to restart U.S.-North Korea talks ahead of his tour of Asia, including attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit this fall.
However, there are concerns that if the United States moves to reduce military exercises without prior coordination with allies and enters talks in a direction that tolerates North Korea's demand for "nuclear-armed state" status, anxiety among allies that have relied on extended deterrence (the nuclear umbrella) for security will inevitably intensify.
Japan's unease is growing further in tandem with structural changes in the recent security landscape of Northeast Asia. North Korea, while aligning closely with Russia to advance its missile technology, is strengthening strategic ties with China and ratcheting up diplomatic and military pressure aimed at South Korea and Japan. The recent sharp criticism by North Korea of Japan's defense white paper and South Korea's military buildup is also seen as an attempt to shake the South Korea-U.S.-Japan security front based on the North Korea-China-Russia alignment.
In fact, North Korea fired ballistic missiles from the Wonsan area into the East Sea on the 12th, following launches on the 6th. In Japan, some interpret this not only as a reaction to the South Korea-U.S. combined drills, but also as a direct warning aimed at Japan's moves to strengthen its defense capabilities, such as the Maritime Self-Defense Force's test launch of Tomahawk cruise missiles.
In particular, since the missile provocations followed shortly after Kim Yo-jong, director of the Workers' Party Secretariat, threatened in a statement to set up "new military options" in step with Japan's military moves, voices are growing in Japan to maintain airtight deterrence against North Korea in the face of a direct security threat.
Since its launch, the Sanae Takaichi government has pursued boosting national defense capabilities and sought dialogue with North Korea to resolve the abduction issue, but the lack of progress due to North Korea's refusal is also a burden. The Nikkei analyzed that "President Trump's order to scale back the South Korea-U.S. drills could cause rifts among allies and hand strategic advantage to North Korea and China-Russia, whose leverage has grown."