Ukraine has reportedly proposed to Russia that both sides stop attacks on civilian targets such as ships and ports in the Black Sea. As the two countries have recently stepped up attacks targeting export ships and ports in the Black Sea, disruptions to grain exports are growing. Given that Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers in the global agricultural market, there are concerns that a prolonged clash could also affect the global food supply.
According to Reuters on the 13th (local time), Ukraine conveyed to Russia through a third party a proposal to mutually halt attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea. A source familiar with the matter said Ukraine is still waiting for Russia's response.
Recently in the Black Sea, as Russia and Ukraine have intensified attacks targeting each other's export ships and ports, logistics disruptions have grown. Both sides are blaming each other, saying the other is expanding attacks.
In the southern Odesa region, a key hub for Ukraine's grain exports, many shipowners suspended calls at local ports after Russia attacked dozens of vessels late last month. Fearing additional attacks, shipowners have avoided ports in the Odesa region, forcing Ukraine to rely on other export routes.
Russia has faced similar disruptions to its grain exports. Due to Ukrainian attacks, operations at three terminals in Novorossiysk, a major Russian Black Sea port, have been completely suspended since the 12th. As a result, Russia also has to further reduce its grain export volumes, Reuters reported.
With Black Sea ports effectively blockaded, Ukraine's grain exports have also plunged. Since the start of this month, Ukraine's grain export volume has fallen 76% from the same period last year. Ukraine's farm sector warned that if this situation continues, it could place a heavy burden on the war-battered national economy.
Ukraine can export grain by rail and via the Danube River, but says its transport capacity is severely limited. Even after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Black Sea has served as a key corridor for shipping Ukrainian grain abroad. In 2022, after Russia's invasion disrupted grain exports, the United Nations (UN) and Turkiye brokered a deal guaranteeing Black Sea shipments of Ukrainian grain. However, the arrangement was halted when Russia refused to extend it in 2023. Since then, Ukraine has maintained grain exports via an alternative maritime route, but as attacks have intensified recently in the Black Sea, this route has also run into fresh disruptions.
As tensions rose in the Black Sea, Turkiye also moved to mediate. On the 9th (local time), Turkiye conveyed concerns to both Russia and Ukraine about Black Sea attacks and urged them to declare a halt to attacks.
Russia has not yet officially responded to Ukraine's proposal. Before reports of Ukraine's proposal, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko told the state news agency Tass that although opinions about a cease-fire or halting attacks had emerged through various channels recently, Russia had not received an official proposal. The Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry also did not respond to related inquiries.
Given that Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers in the global agricultural market, whether Black Sea routes return to normal is a key variable for the global food market. In particular, with Ukraine's alternative transport routes limited, a prolonged effective blockade of Black Sea ports is likely to keep disrupting grain exports and add to uncertainty around the global food supply.